surrey bc

Rainy Days By The Numbers

Rainy days by the numbers In case you haven’t noticed, it’s been raining a lot lately! That’s not a surprise in Vancouver. We’re used to long stretches of rain (and sometimes some snow) from around November to April each year. About this time every year, those warm sunny beach holidays in another country start looking very enticing.

Yet, according to measurements in Vancouver last year, it was March that had the most precipitation with 199.4 millimetres. It wasn’t until November that we got close to that again with 194.8 millimetres. It was newsworthy when November 2017 was recognized for its 27 days of rain out of 30 days, which tied it for the most days of rain in any month since 1953. The summer months were quite low in contrast. June had 46.4 millimetres and then the rain dropped dramatically in July and August to 1.8 millimetres and 5.0 millimetres respectively. Back to the present, however, this January has been very rainy, As of January 19, this month’s precipitation, measured at the sea level in Vancouver’s Coal Harbour, was already at 115.4 millimetres, significantly higher than all of January 2017 at 98.8 millimetres.

You may be someone who thinks about the number of rainy days rather than the amount of rain that actually fell. In that case, here’s a tabulation of the number of days in 2017 with rain fall over four different thresholds.

It’s noteworthy, though not surprising, that the greatest number of rainy days are those above 0.2 millimetres. This is evidence that our sense of that long stretch of rainy days from November to April is correct, but we should also note that the amount of actual rain each day is typically quite low. And the number of really heavy rain days is also quite low.

I think many people will find this to be counter-intuitive – especially this year, when it seems like almost every day is one of heavy rainfall. Perhaps this is a good reason to remind ourselves that our perceptions of rain can be emotionally influenced. So, it worthwhile to check the actual statistics occasionally. It’s a good reality check.

Over the past 25 years, annual precipitation in Vancouver has almost always exceeded 1,000 millimetres. Data collected by Environment and Climate Change Canada show only three years below that amount: 1993 with 837.0 millimetres; 2002 with 857.6 millimetres; and 2013 with 944.0 millimetres. It’s interesting that the lower volumes are increasing as we go forward, but is it a trend? Something to watch I think. For the years above 1,000 millimetres, the precipitation volume in 2016 was the highest at 1,356.8 millimetres. Close behind that was 2007 with 1,322.4 millimetres; 2014 had 1,276.3 millimetres and 2017 had 1,239.3 millimetres. There are a lot of ways to measure rain.

These statistics from Environment and Climate Change Canada are a great way to slice and dice the weather. As I have often mentioned, I like to analyze things statistically, but sometimes it’s also good just to use your basic intuition. For example, I was not able to find any statistics that correlated the amount of rain with a wind factor. With this correlation I think we could also develop a rain wetness index that is similar to what is called a chill factor. Meteorologists have devised the chill factor to indicate how cold it “feels” when you combine the wind and the temperature. So why not a rain wetness factor that would indicate how wet you get when the rain is blowing on you? For example, a heavy downpour in a 40-kilometre per hour wind might be the same rain wetness factor as light rain in an 80-kilometre per hour wind storm. Imagine the calculations you could do! Maybe that will help keep your mind off the rain.

I send you warm and cheery wishes during these rainy and grey winter days.

Thanks for reading!

Sibo Zhang, REALTOR®

5 Ways to Achieve Your New Year’s Resolutions in 2018

Happy New Year!

It’s that time of year again, that annual ritual of making promises to ourselves – what we like to call our New Years Resolutions. Even if it’s a not quite a promise, most of us will make a kind of mental preparation to improve some aspect of our life, whether it’s a positive activity like going to the gym regularly, or quitting a bad habit like smoking. The nice thing about personal resolutions is that when we keep them we can feel proud of our accomplishment, and if we don’t… well then, there’s always next year. I found some research by the Statistics Brain Research Institute on the length of time most people keep their resolutions. This may help you with the kind of resolution you want to make.

Statistically, 76.2 per cent of people who make New Years resolutions are only able to keep them for one week. For two weeks, it’s 68.4 per cent. Only 58.4 per cent get through a whole month, and beyond six months it’s 44.8 per cent. Unless we are doggedly determined to keep a resolution, we can feel better that we belong to the three quarters of people who fail by the end of January, or are part of more than half of people who fail by the end of June.

For those who really want to succeed in their Resolutions, I dug up this advice from an article by a psychologist, Joseph Luciani, Ph.D., published in US News in 2015. I think it’s still very applicable advice.

To summarize what Dr. Luciani says:

1. Think small

Choose simple challenges and make them happen every day. When you get used to keeping your personal commitments, then move on to step 2.

2. Build self-trust

Cultivate your capacity for self-trust. Choose challenges that you know you can succeed at. Don’t make a pledge that you’re not sure you can keep.

3. Invent challenges

This is something you should do all day long. For example, finish your paperwork before watching TV

4. Cultivate optimism

Don’t let negatives rule your life. Focus on positives. If you’re a complainer, then stop complaining to yourself and to others.

5. Develop critical awareness

This means you should strive to shed light on any negative habits you have, and don’t let them dominate your life. Now, if you are still convinced you want to make a News Years Resolution, I found a list of ones that statistically you should probably not make.

According to Time magazine, the top ten resolutions that are most commonly made and then broken are: 1) lose weight/get fit; 2) quit smoking; 3) learn something new; 4) eat healthier and diet; 5) get out of debt and save money; 6) spend more time with family; 7) travel to new places; 8) be less stressed; 9) volunteer; 10) drink less. I’ll bet there’s at least one resolution in the above list that you have tried to make in the past.

Before you decide it’s pointless to try any more, remember that 1) you don’t have to be a statistic (that is, an average – you are still a unique individual; and 2) why not see what happens if you apply Dr. Luciani’s advice to the big goals listed in the Time magazine article! Instead of resolving something so big as to quit smoking, try to quit smoking for one day. Or instead of saying something so general as learning something new, try to focus on something specific like, “Learn how to cook new dish.” I adopted the following formula for reaching achievable goals in business. Maybe it can also be used for personal resolutions too.

The formula is called SMART. Make your goals 1) Specific; 2) Measurable; 3) Attainable; 4) Relevant; 5) Time-sensitive.

 

Of course, if you simply cannot keep your New Years Resolutions, maybe it’s better simply to resolve not to make any resolutions at all. But I’m guessing you won’t be able to keep that one either.

Whatever you decide, I urge you to make this one resolution with me: Have a Happy New Year!

Thanks for reading!

Sibo Zhang, REALTOR®

 

Celebrating the Spirit of Christmas in Surrey, BC

It’s Christmas time and Santa Claus has come to town – my four year old son is sure of that! His older brother is developing a natural skepticism that eventually comes to Santa believers. But it’s nice to see he loves to share in his younger brother’s belief. It’s a lot of fun to wonder what Santa will bring you at Christmas time, and it’s one of those beliefs that leads to happy memories of childhood – like the Tooth Fairy and the Easter Bunny. It’s interesting, however, to watch the questions that start forming in a youngster’s mind as they begin to question some of the stories that form their magical world. My 4-year-old hasn’t yet asked how Santa will cope with the fact that we have a gas fireplace and no chimney big enough for Santa to come down. Or how will Santa be able to get from the mall where he’s posing posing for pictures with kids on his knee and back to North Pole in time to take the reindeer sled out on Christmas eve? The nice thing about a child’s imagination, though, is that it never let’s the impossible get in the way of coming up with a solution. There’s no doubt a good lesson in that for adults too.

This year I saw an interesting news report about how many children in North America believe in Santa Claus. Based on a study in 1978, about 85% of 4-year-olds said that they believed in Santa. That was followed by 65 per cent of 6-year-olds, and 25 per cent of 8-year-olds. Another more recent study in 2011 showed about 83 per cent of North American 5-year-olds believed in Santa Claus. Statistically, I am now assured that my kids are normal, but I really didn’t need statistics to prove this. I see it every day of this season when they are with their friends, all happily getting along enjoying the Christmas spirit.

I also discovered this year that the visual image of our modern North American Santa Claus comes from a magazine illustrator named Thomas Nast. His illustration of Santa Claus in 1881 formed the basis of our contemporary idea of a portly and jolly man with a long white beard in a red suit. This image quickly became a large part of North American culture, much of it because of the advertising campaigns for Coca-Cola. Throughout the 1920s, ‘30s,‘40s, and ’50s, Coca-Cola ads featured a Santa Claus in his famous red suit and white beard enjoying the soft drink at Christmas time. Their advertising nor doubt helped to sell a lot of soft drinks, but it also firmly embedded the image of Santa Claus in popular culture. The artist Nast was said to have found his inspiration for this image in a well-known poem written by Clement Moore in 1822. The poem is better known for its first line,‘Twas the Night Before Christmas, and contains all the basic elements in our modern Santa Claus story – a sled driven by Santa pulled by eight reindeer, landing on rooftops for Santa’s traditional chimney entrance, with gifts for good little boys and girls.

Whichever way Santa may get into your home and into your hearts this year really doesn’t matter. The important thing is that Santa’s spirit of generosity and kindness is part of your family. It’s a wonderful way to end a year and prepare for a new year just around the corner. Our joy of Santa might also remind us that many people do not have a gift-giver in their lives, and that we may have the opportunity to be a Santa to someone of any age whose life would be brightened with a gift from us.

Along with my wife Cindy and my sons Warren and Kingston, we all wish you a very Merry Christmas, and may Santa bring you much happiness.

Thanks for reading!

Sibo Zhang, REALTOR®

New Mortgage Stress Test Rules Starting in 2018

Canadian home buyers will face a new federal government regulation effective January 1, 2018. In the New Year ahead, all home buyers will have a new “stress test” when they apply for a mortgage with their bank or credit union. Until now, the test applied only to those borrowers who did not take out mortgage insurance – typically, borrowers with at least a 20 per cent down payment on their total mortgage were not required to take mortgage insurance. Under the new rules, all borrowers, whether insured or uninsured, will be required to meet the test criteria designed to evaluate a borrower’s likelihood to be able to make payments under possible future conditions.

You may recall in July this year, the Bank of Canada announced an increase on mortgages of 0.25 per cent. At that time, I wrote about why the central bank was raising the prime rate – a move to “cool” rapidly escalating housing prices, and what it would mean for prospective home buyers. When the rate increase was announced, it was proposed as the first of successive increases at later dates. I know many people decided then it was time to purchase a residential property before the next rate increase. The new stress test rule suggests that further rates increases could be on the way.

The stress test will be made on the basis of your financial institution’s posted five-year average mortgage rate, or on a rate that is two per cent higher than its actual mortgage rate – whichever one is higher. Basically, the new rule is to protect against a possible payment default by the home purchaser if interest rates go up beyond their ability to pay. It should be noted, however, that borrowers who already have a mortgage will be exempt from the new rule as long as they renew their existing mortgage at the same financial institution.

The federal government, through the Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions (OSFI), has set out five principles which provide the rationale for the stress test and a guide on how federally regulated financial institutions are to administer the test. Below, based on these principles, I simply want to explain what borrowers can expect when the apply for a mortgage after the end of this year. And I would like to emphasize that, beyond the new universal requirement for mortgage insurance, there is really nothing new that a mortgage applicant would not normally expect.

Principle 1: This Principles is focused on what is expected of federally regulated financial institutions (FRFIs) by way of diligent management of their own affairs. The last four principles relate to what will impact you directly when applying for mortgage.

Principle 2: FRFIs should perform reasonable due diligence to record and assess the borrower’s identity, background and demonstrated willingness to service his/her debt obligations on a timely basis. There’s nothing surprising here. As you would expect, your bank or credit union will check your credit history and past borrowing behaviour. It’s worth noting that if the financial institution uses your credit bureau score, this indicator should not be used solely in the assessment of your reliability to repay the loan. Other basics issues also fall under this principle such as: the purpose of the loan (e.g. purchase of refinancing; debt servicing on other key expenses such as heating, taxes, and other debt obligations; Loan to Value ratio, i.e. property valuation and appraisal documents; property insurance and a commitment to insure the mortgage. There is also requirement to verify the source of the down payment, since there is also federal legislation for anti-money laundering and anti-terrorist financing.

Principle 3: FRFIs should adequately assess the borrower’s capacity to service his/her debt obligations on a timely basis. Again, no surprises here. As you would expect, there will be a verification required on your employment status and income. However, if you derive your income from a source outside Canada, it could pose a challenge to its verification, and the financial institution is instructed to be cautious in such cases. If this applies to you, it would be best to arrange for a clear and easy verification process, perhaps through the foreign financial institution acting on behalf of your source of income. There is some overlap with this principle and principle two, but it’s worth repeating that your ability to pay will include an assessment of such things as principal and interest payments on the mortgage loan; primary and other sources of income; heating costs; property taxes; condominium or strata fees; and payments for all other credit facilities (e.g., unsecured personal loan, second mortgage loan, credit card).

Principle 4: FRFIs should have sound collateral management and appraisal processes for the underlying mortgage properties. This principle sounds very similar to principle 1 insofar as it directs the diligence required of the financial institution for the loan. However, it does cover some required actions which can directly impact the borrower such as assessment methods of the property value, the Loan to Value assessment based on the property assessment; and loan types, whether high or low Loan to Value ratios. These assessments can impact on the financial institution’s need to impose contractual terms and conditions that secure their full protection under laws applicable in relevant jurisdictions, including, where applicable, what legal actions may be taken should the borrower default. Also included under this principle are considerations for Home Equity Loans (sometimes called ‘reverse mortgages’) which form a different category of issues from regular mortgages.

Principle 5: FRFIs should have effective credit and counter party risk management practices and procedures that support residential mortgage underwriting and loan asset portfolio management, including, as appropriate, mortgage insurance. This principle almost goes without saying since it covers the due diligence that a financial institution should undertake in picking the mortgage insurance underwriter. However, it’s worth mentioning here so potential borrowers understand from whom they will they obtain their insurance. The bank or credit union granting the mortgage may arrange for the insurance (to be paid by the borrower) from Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) or another private mortgage insurance provider. It is also worth noting, therefore, that your financial institution is required by its required due diligence to ensure the underwriting standards of the third-party insurer are consistent with your bank or credit union’s Residential Underwriting Practices and Procedures, and also compliant with the OSFI Guideline, which directs that federally regulated financial institutions should not rely solely on the attestation of the third party.

I have not tried to cover every detail in the new mortgage insurance rules in this blog. For most of my clients, the above review should be sufficient to give them a basic understanding of what to expect when applying for a mortgage starting in 2018. If you wish to read the entire OSFI Guideline you can find it at http://www.osfi-bsif.gc.ca/Eng/fi-if/rg-ro/gdn-ort/gl-ld/Pages/b20_dft.aspx

If anyone would like a more specific review of how the new rules will apply, I would be happy to speak with you personally.

I am experienced in personal financial matters having worked within a Canadian financial institution, in addition to my realtor expertise, and I would be happy to advise you on all aspects of what may be the biggest and most important investment of your life – the selection, purchase and financing of your home. Please feel free to give me a call.

Thanks for reading!

Sibo Zhang, REALTOR®

(604) 779-7992

Living and Investing in Surrey

In my last blog, I referred to a recent report from the Real Estate Investment Network (REIN) which ranked Surrey in the top 10 cities in British Columbia. That’s a major endorsement for Surrey when it comes to deciding where you want to invest in a home and raise a family! And when a city gets known for something like that, its reputation escalates as everyone gets even more excited about what they’ve got.

You can be certain that purchasing a home in Surrey is truly an investment, and an exceptionally good one. My wife and I are raising our family here and we couldn’t be happier. I had to dedicate my entire last blog to the multitude of events here just for youth. In this post I will try to balance the scale a bit in favour in why Surrey is great place for adults too; and of course having a great choice of things to do together with your children is also one of the biggest rewards!

Let’s begin with a theme that is the hallmark of living everywhere in British Columbia – the great outdoors! Surrey has preserved some of the most beautiful areas for parks – and the City’s Parks Board has developed breathtakingly beautiful parks. In fact, there are so many parks in Surrey I would have to publish a book to mention them all. The City of Surrey’s website says there are 200 parks here, but if you count all the greenbelts and nature areas, there are over 600 sites according to British Columbia tourism ministry. I have gone to a tourist website, Trip Advisor Canada, and the British Columbia’s Tourism website to narrow the list to 10 of their top picks (just to be impartial). I’ve started in South Surrey and picked some great parks and nature preserves moving northwards.

There are beautiful parks with unique programs in every one of Surrey’s neighbourhoods.

i) Crescent Beach

This spectacularly beautiful area is the perfect place for a walk along the ocean or taking in a sunset on the western horizon.

ii) Redwood Park on 20th Avenue

This beautiful forest has lots of trails for exploring, and the park has lots of fun things for kids too, like a playground keeping with the Redwood theme of the park, and “fairy houses” along the main trail.

iii) Blackie Spit Park at 3135 McBride Ave

This area is also on the ocean coast and is a great place to walk with kids, or you can walk your dog on leash. For the more adventurous, it’s also a great place to launch a kayak and a paddle the coast line.

iv) Urban Safari Rescue Society at 1395 176 St.

Even if you don’t like lizards, spiders, snakes, turtles, and all sorts of bugs, then I’ll bet your kids do! This place isn’t exactly a park, but for nature it’s a great place to learn about all those interesting creatures that children are curious about.

v) Unwin Park in the Newton Area

Large 36-acre community park with a host of different activities for the whole family. Check out the baseball diamonds, batting cage, cricket fields, soccer fields, lacrosse boxes, and even a basketball court.

vi) Green Timbers Urban Forest at 4600 Block of 100th Ave.

My family loves this place. It’s a tranquil and quiet park off the Fraser Highway near King George Boulevard. You can go biking or for lovely walk along a beautiful pond. There is lots to do here for adults or children.

viii) Bear Creek Park at 13759 88th Ave.

A great place to entertain young children. There is the Bear Creek miniature train, a waterpark and outdoor pool to cool down in the summer or you can play mini-golf or hike along the trials.

ix) Fleetwood Park in the Fleetwood area

This is a perfect place for picnics and play areas (including a spray park) to scenic gardens and nature trails.

x) Guildford Height Park

This is a 16-acre park near Guildford town centre, two blocks east of the Guildford Mall. Its games court and multi-use grass field is perfect for a game of pick-up soccer of frisbee.

Now, let’s take depart from the great outdoors and take a quick look at what Surrey offers for arts and cultural activities. There is already an abundant appreciation of the cultural activities that make for a vibrant community life in Surrey. Here are just a few examples of the kind of investments the City has made to ensure a enhanced cultural and artistic community is appreciated and enjoyed.

The Surrey Arts Centre at 13750 88 Ave. is like a one-stop shop for visual and performing arts. It is the arts hub for the Surrey Art Galley and the Surrey Civic Theatre’s Main Stage and Studio Stage Theatre. Here you can discover contemporary art through changing exhibitions, permanent artworks, and free events like tours, talks and art-making opportunities. Or you can watch actors, dancers and musicians perform on stage. You can even explore your own creativity through the many art and performing arts classes offered here. In the Newton area, the Arts Council of Surrey has turned the old Firehall into its new headquarters. Named the Surrey Cultural Centre, it is a thriving centre advancing arts appreciation in the heart of the Newton in Surrey. This is just a small sample of what has already started in Surrey’s cultural life. The City is committed to developing its arts and cultural communities. In 2011, Surrey adopted a broad framework – The Surrey Cultural Plan — to enhance the City’s ability to effectively mobilize the resources and talent available within the community towards a sustainable, dynamic, and socially cohesive city with an enviable quality of life. These are just a few of the factors that contribute to Surrey’s making the top 10 list in the REIN report.

You can see that choosing Surrey as place to raise your family is indeed smart investment in the future!

Thanks for reading!

Sibo Zhang, REALTOR®

 

*image via www.surrey.ca

Halloween Is An Evolving Celebration

 

Halloween is approaching – a favourite date for kids, and a lot of adults too, to dress up and make believe. My two boys love thinking about what they will “be” on the evening of October 31. Maybe a witch, a ghost, or a fairly tale prince or princess. Sometimes kids want to imagine a future adult job when they grow up. One year our oldest son went trick-and-treating dressed as a policeman. I’m glad he was thinking of a lawful occupation. (It was my neighbour who wore a prisoner costume and let my son keep him under arrest while going door to door for free candies).

I think it’s a great time for kids and parents to enjoy a harmless and fun time, but like any event in our modern, multicultural country, it needs to treated in a way that fosters our children’s sense of community, and avoids costumes that can cause hurt to others. Sometimes this is inadvertent, simply because many costumes on sale in stores are throwbacks to a period of history when they were worn simply to be different. Today, they may cause offence because we now realize they may represent something sacred or otherwise sensitive part of another person’s religious or cultural heritage. Globe and Mail writer Elizabeth Renzetti had a good column recently about this entitled Offensive Halloween Costumes Should Go to the Grave. (October 14, 2017). Renzettti points to headwear such as turbans or feathered headdresses as such examples.

Of course, if you look at the history of Halloween you understand this peculiar celebration has its roots in ancient cultural and religious beliefs. This also provides a lesson for modern folks. We should try to understand how celebrations like Halloween can evolve, and how a multicultural nation like Canada has a unique opportunity to continue the transformations that occur in its evolution – a learning experience that has value for adults and children alike. I found it very interesting to learn that Halloween actually had its origins in an ancient Celtic festival called Samhain. This dates back 2,000 years ago when the Celts, a people living in what is now Ireland, Britain and northern France had a festival on November 1st, which was their New Years Day. The Celts had a religion with Druid priests who believed the ghosts of the dead ancestors returned to earth on their New Year’s eve. Hundreds of years later, when the ancient Roman empire had conquered the Celtic lands, the annual festival came to include honouring the Roman deity Pomona, the goddess of fruit. Today, our Halloween activities for kids often include “bobbing” for apples, (trying to take a bite of apple while it floats in a tub of water), which we can connect to this ancient Roman aspect of the festival. Then, hundreds of years after this period, when the Christian religion through the Roman Catholic Church was dominant in the empire, the celebration blended the Celtic belief of the returning souls with the Church holiday of All Souls Day. This saw people dressing up as angels and devils.

The modern idea of “trick-or-treating” from house to house appears to have its origins in later celebrations of Halloween when poor people were given pastries called “soul-cakes” – a possible reference to earlier times when food was in short supply during the winter, the start of which was Halloween. This may have been the beginning of our modern celebration when kids go door to door for candies, apples, and other goodies.

Since my wife and I have come to Canada from China, we also want to teach our children about their Chinese heritage. We’re looking forward to seeing dragons and other Chinese icons also becoming part of Halloween festivities. We love raising our two sons in this exciting multicultural country!

Check out some of the fun, family-friendly activities happening in Surrey for Halloween this year, here.

Thanks for reading!

Sibo Zhang, REALTOR®

sons reading website

My Son’s Reading Website

I suppose I’m like every other parent who is proud of things that their child has done. But the reading website produced by my 10-year old son Warren is something I feel I must share with others.

Warren loves reading. He gets up early in the morning just to have extra reading time in his busy school schedule and outside athletics to read rather big books; for example, he’s read all the Harry Potter stories which are his favourite. But what I really want to tell you about is his website.

Last year, Warren designed and launched his own website: www.sharereadingexperience.com

I am especially proud of the website name he chose, because it truly represents his joy of reading which he wants to share with others. On his website he writes a blog which often consists of his review of the latest book he has read. I have to admit, I don’t get time to read everything that Warren reads, so it’s a good way for me to get a good summary of the stories that he likes. And it’s also a way for other kids to read his reviews, and to write their own replies. So, if you happen to have a son or daughter who also likes to read, they are most welcome to visit Warren’s website. I’m sure they will have fun reading the story summaries that Warren has posted.

Here are some examples:

If the worst murderer was on the loose, would you be scared? How about if the murderer was targeting you? What would you feel?   Once again, he goes with the Dursleys for summer break. But one day Mr. Dursley’s aunt comes (Aunt Marge). Harry…

That’s Warren’s opening for his review of Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Askaban. Well, it had me hooked, so maybe it will do the same for you, or even better for your kids.

Not all of Warren’s blogs are about Harry Potter. Here’s the opening excerpt from The Land of Stories: An Author’s Odyssey.

Did you ever dream about going into your written stories? Well that’s what Conner did. After their uncle took over the fairy tale world and destroyed it, they planned to recruit their own armies just like what their uncle did, traveling in…

I guess I will be accused of parental bias, but I think that’s a truly compelling first line. I love the way it shows that Warren has learned the idea of raising a person’s interest in a subject before proceeding on. I’m not sure if this is a result of his language teachers at school, or if it is something he has just learned to do from his reading experience, but it tells me that he is actually learning some useful skills while at the same time reading for enjoyment.

By reading so much, rather than watching television or streamed movies excessively, I also believe Warren is developing a richer vocabulary and better comprehension skills, which helps him in his other school subjects. Of course, Warren’s mother and I are both immensely proud of our blogging son, not just because we encourage him to read a lot, but mostly because he is growing up with a desire to share with others. I hope you will agree this is a very important virtue for children to learn, and I hope you and your kids will visit his website and share your own reading experience.

Thanks for reading!

Sibo Zhang, REALTOR®

green timbers urbanforest

North Surrey’s Green Timbers Urban Forest

One of my favourite places in Surrey is the Green Timbers Urban Forest, near the King George Skytrain station; or by car just off Green Timbers Way from 140th Street. It’s almost like a secret park – nestled behind big trees that hide it — and sound proof it — from the nearby Fraser Highway. For many families who live in towers or townhouses, this lovely park is their big back yard with lots of space for their kids to play, and for adults just to enjoy experiencing nature’s gifts. The expansive green space has hills and bushes that make for a perfect game of hide-and-seek, or just letting your energetic children run around to their heart’s content. There’s also an enchanted forest – well, the wooded area that can seem like one to a small child who will love to climb on the giant tree stump, or build a fort out of branch poles. At age two, my son Kingston had a wonderful time finding interesting little bugs on the forest floor. His curiosity about nature grew immensely and he still stops any time he sees a little insect on the ground and watches it intently.

Not only is the outdoor area a natural classroom, but the Park also has an indoor learning centre which can be used for social events as well. One year we reserved the large room for my son Warren’s eighth birthday. After he and his friends were worn out from all their outdoor games in the park, everyone came inside for cake and juice, and there were lots of indoor activities for the group as well.

During the school year, the Park offers a great choice of actual outdoor education courses to supplement regular school classes. Teachers can sign up their whole class for special elementary education, and there are even pre-school field trips for younger kids. There’s even something for teachers themselves. For the next Pro-D day, they might want to check out the outdoors teaching workshop offered at the Park.

This fall there are some great programs lined up at Green Timbers. Some are free and others that are longer and have more structure have a charge. For kids aged 3 to 5, there are Saturday morning sessions that are free. On October 20th and November 10 there are free Discovery Days for families with kids of all ages. Activities on these days are from 10 am to 2 pm and include a Nature Guide, books, puppets and other materials in the Sky Room before heading outdoors to explore the natural surroundings. If you have teenagers from 13 to 17 in your family, they can enjoy the Surrey Youth Stewardship Program, which has a collaborative art project and is also free on November 18 from 10 am to 2 pm.

Or there is the 24-session program on Tuesdays and Thursdays starting September 26 for about $400.00. This sounds like a great combination of day care and outdoor education. For older children aged 6 to 9, there are full day Friday classes on November 3rd and 9th which combine art with nature studies for about $50.00.

And I’ve saved for the last an event for what my own kids really love – Halloween! On Saturday October 28, there will be “Halloween in the Forest” from 10 am to 2 pm. This will be a free indoor and outdoor event complete with Halloween treats and a special Forest Fairy for young children.

You can find out more about the great times for families at Surrey’s Green Timbers Urban Forest by phoning 604-502-6065 or visiting the website at http://www.surrey.ca/culture-recreation/2311.aspx

Image via www.surrey.ca

Thanks for reading!

Sibo Zhang, REALTOR®

Sibo’s Market Update for Metro Vancouver / Fraser Valley Sept. 2017

 

Let’s start this month with something curious that appears to be happening in the detached home market in Metro Vancouver. You may recall last month when I reported the Benchmark price for a residential property had surpassed the $1-million mark for the first time in July. I said then that this may have created a psychological attitude from a buyer’s point of view, where many home hunters make the decision to look at another market segment, either townhouses or condominiums. This month I can tell you that’s precisely what is happening. But it remains to be seen if I was completely correct or only half right on the whole equation. While there has been a clear spike in sales of townhouses and condominiums, my prediction was that detached family homes would rise in price at a rate faster than before the $1-million threshold. This latter speculation has not yet happened, although it’s too early to detect a trend. The Benchmark price for a detached property in August was $1,615,100, which is only a 0.2 per cent increase over the preceding month. The increase from June to July was 2.1 per cent so for the time being anyway, the detached home price appears not to be escalating. This might be for various reasons, but for anyone wanting to get into a detached home, they should probably move quickly. It’s a safe bet that the price in the Metro Vancouver is not going to decline. What may be keeping the rate of increase this low is an unexpected increase in the supply. Compared to August a year previous, sales of detached homes were nearly 23 per cent higher this year. It may well be that a segment of sellers also held the $1-million mark as their selling point, so I will stick with my longer-term prediction that the rate of increase will pick up once this segment clears in sales.

Metro Vancouver

Looking at the rather hot Metro Vancouver market in August for attached properties, the Benchmark price for a townhouse was $778,300 and for a condo, $626,800, compared with the previous month at, $763,700 and $616,600 respectively. You can see that prices are moving up quickly in this market segment so I have analyzed for you here some areas you may want to check out. I have selected a Benchmark price range for August from the low $600,000s to the low $700,000s combined with areas with lowest month-over-month rate of increase. I think this may be good guide for a large segment of my clients.

For townhouses, Port Moody was at $608,700 with a last month rate of increase of 1.9 per cent. For New Westminster: $652,700 with a last month rate increase of 0.9 percent. For the top of my selected range I am using two areas close in both geographical location and price: Tsawwassen ($720,100 with a negative last month rate of increase of 0.9 per cent) and Ladner ($733,900 also with a negative last month rate of increase at 0.6 per cent). While a single month does not itself show the rate of increase will remain low in the long term, in these cases I think sit is reasonably good indicator of greater price stability than some other areas.

For condominiums, I have selected a Benchmark price in a range from the low $400,000s to the low $500,000, again combined with lowest last month rate of increase. Port Coquitlam was at $412,200 with a last month rate of increase of 2.8 per cent. Coquitlam was $476,900 with a last month rate of increase of 3.8 per cent. New Westminster: $480,000 with a one-month rate of increase of 2.8 per cent. And Vancouver East at $529,000 with a last month rate of increase of 0.9 per cent. As with townhouses, the single month rate of increase is not a long-term predictor, but I think it’s a reasonably reliable indicator for price stability for at least the short term.

Fraser Valley

I’m betting September will be month that the Fraser Valley Composite Benchmark Price (CBP) for a residential property goes over the $1-million mark, as it did in Metro Vancouver in July this year. If you’ve been following my contest, I have been offering a prize to the person who guesses closest to the CBP over $1-million and the month in which it will occur. The CBP for a residential property in the Fraser Valley for July was $966,000. To reach $1-million would require a 3.6 per cent increase over July, which is a big jump for one month. I think it will take two months and if I’m correct we’ll see that when the September statistics are out next month. So, this may be your last chance to make a guess and win a customized Comparative Market Analysis (CMA) of your current property. Each CMA is an estimate of the owner’s house value using its condition, location (neighbourhood study), real estate market study, and recently sold homes in the same area. Send me your guesses (sibo@sibozhang.com) by the end of this month (September 2017). Our winner(s) will be announced in a coming newsletter and on my website. Be sure to include your name and phone number so we can collaborate on your CMA.

The Valley saw, once again, a high demand for townhouses and apartments in August. The Benchmark Price for a townhouse as $491,900 in August, a one month increase of 1.0 per cent over July. For apartments, the BP was $349,300, a one month increase of 2.4 per cent over July. I have many clients wanting to find a quality attached residence in the Fraser Valley so again this month I have selected some areas with an affordable price range.

For townhouses, a price range that many young families are looking for is from the mid-$300,000s to about $500,000. Along with these Benchmark Prices (BP) I have also included the last month rate of increase so you can get a basic idea of the market activity there. For the least expensive townhouses you would have to go as far out as Mission where the BP in August was $392,500 with a 3.0 per cent last month rate of increase. For Abbotsford: $340,500 with 1.9 per cent last month increase. For Langley: $464,500 with a 0.7 per cent last month rate of increase. For North Delta, $501,000 with a 0.6 per cent last month rate of increase. As you can see, the BP rises as you get closer to Metro Vancouver.

For apartments, I know many young people are looking for a residence that is affordable within a starting salary range, so I’ve selected areas with a range of August Benchmark prices from the $200,000s to the mid-$300,000s. This time the least expensive is in Abbotsford at $259,800 with a 1.4 per cent last month rate of increase. Next in price is Mission at $273,200 with a last month rate of increase of 1.5 per cent. North Delta is $324,100 with a last month rate of increase at negative 0.4 per cent. North Surrey at $333,900 with a last month rate of increase at 3.0 per cent. And Surrey at $345,900 with a last month rate of increase at 0.4 per cent. You may have noticed the difference from townhouse prices here, as the least expensive apartments are not necessarily the farthest from Metro Vancouver.

image via biv.com

Thanks for reading!

Sibo Zhang, REALTOR®

 

Pattullo Bridge pt.2 – The Bell Shaped Curve

In my last post I talked about the repairs needed to keep the Pattullo Bridge open until a new replacement bridge is built. Now I want to point out my favourite design feature of the existing bridge in the hope that the architects and engineers of the new bridge will keep this one feature.

The feature is the “Bell Shaped Curve” displayed in the orange-coloured iron structures on the sides of the bridge at its crest, or basically the centre part of the Bridge. You get a great view of this when you are on the Skytrain crossing the Fraser River between New Westminster and Surrey.

The Bell Curve has special significance for me because of my formal training in statistics. If you read my monthly newsletter you will have noticed that I often discuss benchmark prices in the residential market, and other average prices. So, what’s this got to do with a bell shaped curve? Quite a lot, actually. You see the Bell Curve is really a graphical representation of data. In Real Estate, the data can be residential prices. When you have a high number of price values they may show up in a Bell Curve. If you imagine a vertical line dividing the Bell in half, that would be the average price of the values on the left and right sides of the Curve. This average is also called the Mean. You can see the curve is symmetrical on both sides of the line dividing it in half. The values under the top of the curve are negative on the left side and positive on the right side, therefore creating the mean average in the middle.

The Bell Curve is considered a beautiful thing in pure mathematics. It applies to lots of different kinds of groupings in society and in nature. It shows up when you have lots of data in the thing you are studying. One of the really interesting things about it is that in every Bell Curve most of the data falls under the highest (central) part of the Curve. Then the next largest grouping falls under the next lower part, so that each successive smaller part causes the curve to get closer and closer to its lowest point. Each of these symmetrical groupings around the mean average is called the standard deviation from the mean.

In statistics, another name for the bell shape is Normal Distribution. Here is the more precise thing about that interesting data pattern called the standard deviation. In a normal distribution, approximately 68% of values are always within the first standard deviation from the mean; then within two standard deviations from the mean there are always about 95% of the values. and about 99.7% are within three standard deviations.

In a Real Estate market, the standard deviation could be a group of housing prices on either side of the average price. When the standard deviation is a short distance from the average price (centre line), the bell shape is higher and more pointed at the top. When the standard deviation is longer, it is a lower bell shape like the Pattullo Bridge’s curve. So you can understand now how the number of values that we have in the data can affect whether the Bell Shape is high or low.

Now take a look at a closer look at the Pattullo Bridge’s Bell Curve iron works. Look carefully at the tail end on the outer curve. The inner curve attaches more or less straight down onto the bridge, but the outer curve extends in a horizontal manner which gets very close but does not actually meet the flat part of the bridge (actually, it’s fastened to the bridge for practical purposes, but you get the idea). That’s the area that get’s very close but never quite meets the bottom. This is the tail end of the curve that extends to account for the tiny percentage of data beyond the 97.3 per cent in the third standard deviation. It’s under that small space where “outliers” are located. As the standard deviations get farther from the mean average, we approach the outliers in the tails of the curve. It’s in those tails that I am always looking for special real estate deals.

So please, keep the Pattullo’s Bell Shaped Curve in the new replacement bridge scheduled to be ready in 2023. It has a great deal of symbolic significance in Canada’s fastest growing residential market.

Thanks for reading!

Sibo Zhang, REALTOR®

image via www.translink.ca