surrey bc lifestlye

BC’s Referendum on Electoral Reform

For some reason I can’t stop thinking about something called the Pareto Principle these days. I guess it has to do with my training in statistics, and the current referendum on BC’s electoral reform. I’m not going to tell anyone here on how I think they should vote, but I do encourage all eligible voters to get their votes in the mail in time. The deadline has been extended from November 30 to December 7 because of postal service disruption. There is of course a good civic responsibility argument to made for voting, but that’s not the primary reason why I hope the referendum will get a high percentage of voter participation.

Let me explain why the Pareto Principle is important.

The 80/20 rule

Often called the 80/20 rule, the Pareto Principle refers to a division frequently-found in many fields. It is not really a rule, as that would suggest it must occur. It’s probably best described as an observation that holds true in an approximate way in many circumstances. For example, the man who discovered it, an 19th Century Italian economist named Vilfredo Pareto, noticed that about 20 per cent of Italy’s population owned close to 80 per cent of the country’s land. A similar comparison was made by the United Nations in the late 20th Century that about 20 per cent of the world’s population controlled about 80 per cent of the world’s wealth. There have been lots of other similar observations. Generalized, these observations say that about 80 per cent of results come from about 20 per cent of the causes. As I mentioned, this is not an absolute rule, but this ratio does turn up in a lot of activities. So, will it be the case in BC’s current referendum on electoral reform?

BC referendum on electoral reform

I am hoping we get a large voter participation our province’s current referendum on our election rules. By this I mean, I hope a lot more than 20 per cent of eligible voters will cast their ballot. If we get only a small portion, say 20 to 30 per cent of eligible voters, and their vote determines the system which the large majority of us will then use, it doesn’t strike me as if the referendum for reform is any better than the election system that is being reformed. The reason we are having this referendum is that a lot of people think our elections typically elect governments which do not reflect the popular vote, that is the total number of votes cast. They point to the current system which is called First Past the Post as the problem. If you happen to be a horse racing fan you will recognize this term. In a race of say 10 horses, the one that passes the finish post first is the winner. That’s pretty simple to understand. In an election which has many electoral ridings, and various political parties represented by different candidates in each riding, it means the winner is the one that has more votes than any other individual candidate. But since there are typically more than two candidates in each riding, it is usually the case that the winner gets elected with less than 50 per cent of the popular vote. When this is extended to all the ridings across the province, then the party that forms the government often has the support of less than 50 per cent of the people who voted. Sometimes the governing party may have as little as 30 per cent or less of the popular vote.

The current Referendum is a vote on whether we should keep the First Past the Post system or if we should also have another way of adding more winners according to a method called Proportional Representation, or Pro-Rep for short. There are three versions of pro-rep a second question on in the Referendum and I am not going to attempt to describe these versions to you. I urge you to read the Referendum questions carefully yourself and make up your own mind. The important thing it that you send in your ballot. Let me explain why.

A spoiled ballot can be better than voter apathy

A big problem with all elections is voter apathy. When only 20 or 30 per cent of the eligible voters cast their vote, we don’t really know what the electorate wants. Regarding the current Referendum, I have heard many people say they don’t understand it and therefore they are not going to vote. For those who may feel the same way, I think it would be better if you mailed in a spoiled ballot rather than not voting at all. If you write on your ballot that you don’t understand it well enough to select from the choices offered, your opinion could still be publicly noted if officials informed the media. But if you don’t vote at all, it just leaves a big question mark about which system you want. A spoiled ballot may not be the best option as a general rule, but it is better than not voting at all because it can provide information on why people didn’t vote. It may not help with the final outcome of the election, but it would help to show that voter apathy was not the problem. It can show that don’t want the Pareto Principle to rule in the Referendum.

Thanks for reading!

Sibo Zhang, REALTOR®

Halloween Events in Surrey

Halloween is nothing if not popular. Last year in this blog space I wrote about the history of this annual celebration, which is a favourite time for scary costumes and “trick or treating” kids collecting candy with door to door visits in their neighbourhoods. As mentioned before, I like this event because it has adapted to new customs throughout many countries since its origin in ancient times. It is now a mix of popular themes from the many ideas that make up the Canadian cultural mosaic. For families with children there are special events on Halloween in areas throughout Metro Vancouver. Whatever your favourite Halloween costume or party theme might be, I’m sure you will be able to find some fun for your whole family this October 31. Here is selection of some of Surrey events to choose from:

Bear Creek Park Train

Children can enjoy the Pumpkin Express at Bear Creek Park. This little train offers a thrilling ride through a forest decorated specially for Halloween. And kids will get a small pumpkin as a treat on the platform to remember the event. If you can’t make it on Halloween, or if you want to keep that day for your own door-to-door trick or treating, you can still catch Woo Woo the train on days leading up to Halloween. enjoy. Here are dates and address: Each day leading to and including Halloween from 10:00 am to 4:30 pm at Bear Creek Park. There is a ticket price of $10. (Address below)

There is also a more frightening train ride for older children called the Scream Train at Bear Creek. On this ride you will experience Chain Saw Charlie and other ghoulish characters. The special effects and sounds along the route through the forest will be just what a thrill-seeking person is looking for on Halloween, but it’s too much for younger kids so keep in mind you have choice depending on the age of your children. Tickets for the Scream Train are $13 per person. The Scream train runs between 6:30 pm and 10 om each day leading up to and including Halloween. Bear Creek Part is at 13759 88th Avenue in Surrey. For more information online: www.bctrains.com/halloween

Potter Houses of Horror

Another Surrey favorite is Potter’s House of Horrors. Once again, these will be two haunted houses to explore. The long-time favorite, Monstrosity 2.0 will be open again with its gothic scariness. This can be a lot of fun for older kids and adults, but I wouldn’t recommend it for young toddlers who could be too frightened by the creatures inside. For youngsters under 10 years old I would recommend the L’il Haunters. However, for the very young even this might be a bit too spooky so I suggest you check it out first before taking in your very young children.

The second haunted house at Potter’s is Devil’s Descent, which opened for the first time last year. This is a more rugged design into mine shafts with rotting wood and machines, along with zombies and other scary monsters. You will need separate tickets for both haunted houses. These are available online which is recommended to avoid line-ups. The Potter Haunted Houses are also open on days leading up to and including Halloween. They are open each day from 4:00 pm to 6:30 pm (this time is recommended for younger kids as it is less scary) and from 7:00 pm to 10:00 pm (for the full frightening version). Located at Potters House, 12530 72nd Avenue, Surrey. You can find more details online at www.pottershouseofhorrors.com.

Not everything on Surrey’s Halloween agenda is just for kids. For teenagers and even adults there are great activities to enjoy on October 31.

Halloween for Teens

At the Surrey Centre Library from 3:30 pm to 5:30 pm teens from 13 to 18 years of age are invited to the free workshop where you can explore the spooky history of Halloween’s ancient origins. This is a free event so teens can enjoy learning about Halloween before they head out for an evening’s fun on October 31.

Halloween for Adults

For older adults 55 and older, there is a Halloween Tea at the Guildford Recreation Centre on October 31 from 1:00 pm to 2:30 pm The cost is only $15 and will get you tea and a light lunch of soup, sandwich and treats complete with live entertainment. And don’t be shy about coming in a costume. There will be prizes for the best ones. Register online at Guildford Recreation Centre with the registration code: 4632039.

Also in the afternoon on October 31, adults 55 and older are invited to the Fleetwood Community Centre for a Halloween Costume Party. This is a costume contest so get your best ideas on and show up between noon and 2:00 pm. There will be lots of fun with halloween music, games and entertainment as well as light food and refreshments. Tickets are $20 and can be purchased online at Fleetwood Community Centre with registration code 4626683.

However, you choose to enjoy Halloween this year, remember that there will be young children on our streets and we need to be extra careful as we drive on October 31. Wishing everyone a safe and fun Halloween 2018.

Thanks for reading!

Sibo Zhang, REALTOR®

Your March Market Update for Metro Vancouver and the Fraser Valley

If you happened to read the news story in the Globe and Mail at the beginning of the month, the headline surely intrigued you: “Vancouver housing sales fall 9 % in February.” The story behind the decline is really the more important consideration for prospective home buyers. As a statistician, I always want my clients to understand the reason when a number is cited.

First, the February sales decline is for all property types across Metro Vancouver, so we will have to look more closely at the different categories. Based on ten-year sales average, February’s sales for all property types were down 14.4 per cent; detached sales declined 39.4 per cent; townhouse declined 6.8 per cent, but condominium sales rose 5.5 per cent above the 10-year average. Second, the 9 per cent decrease is a comparison with February sales in 2017. It’s a significant percentage, but the actual number of sales for the respective months were 2,207 in 2018 and 2,424 in 2017, so in practical terms not really a huge difference. And the number of sales in February this year was a monthly increase of 21.4 per cent over January, so it’s important to recognize that the market is still very active. The composite benchmark price for all residential properties in Metro Vancouver at the end of February was $1,071.800, a 16.9 per cent increase year-over-year and a 1.4 per cent increase since January this year. It will be important to watch these two price levels in coming months.

What the newspaper story was really about what may be the beginning of fewer sales each month following the provincial budget announcements in February that impact out-of-province buyers. The BC government has targeted speculative buyers with an additional tax as well as increasing and expanding the foreign buyers tax beyond Metro Vancouver. I will talk more about these tax measures in my next Blog, but for now I will focus on the market place prices for prospective local home buyers and sellers.

Detached Properties

The benchmark price for a single detached property in Greater Vancouver at the end of February was $1,602,000, an 8.2 per cent increase from the February 2017, and a 1.9 per cent increase from January this year. The extremities of this average range from a high in Vancouver West (higher than West Vancouver, and excluding Whistler) at $3,500,600 to a low in low in Maple Ridge at $847,700. That’s obviously quite a large spread, so I’ve selected three areas on each side of the Benchmark where you can find properties closest to the Metro Benchmark at the end of February. On the higher side, the Burnaby South Benchmark price was $1,682,600, an increase of 0.9 per cent over the previous month. North Vancouver’s Benchmark was $1686,800, an increase of 1.0 per cent over the previous month; and Richmond’s Benchmark was $1,697,900, an increase of 0.4 per cent over the previous month. On the lower side, the Vancouver East Benchmark was $1,560,400, a decrease of 0,2 per cent from the previous month; the Burnaby North Benchmark was $1,532,700, a decrease of 2.2 per cent from the previous month; and Port Moody’s Benchmark was $1,483,700, a decrease of 0.7 per cent from the preceding month.

Townhouses

The Benchmark price for a townhouse in Metro Vancouver at the end of February was $819,200. This average was made up of prices ranging from a high of $1,250,100 in Vancouver West to a low of $551,400 in Maple Ridge. I have again selected three areas on each side of the Benchmark which are closest to the Benchmark at the end of February. On the higher side, almost identical to the Metro Benchmark was the Richmond Benchmark at $819,500, a decrease of 0.4 per cent from the previous month. The Benchmark for Vancouver East was $868,900, an increase of 1.3 per cent from the previous month; and the North Vancouver Benchmark at $998,400, an increase of 0.7 per cent from the previous month. On the lower side, the Benchmark for Burnaby South was $807,600, an increase of 2.7 per cent over the previous month. The Tsawwassen Benchmark was $756,000, a decrease of 0.9 per cent from the previous month; and the Ladner Benchmark at $783,200, an increase of 0.9 per cent from the previous month. In this breakdown, I have excluded Whistler as I normally do for areas farther out than my clients wish to look.

Condominiums

The Metro Vancouver Benchmark price for condominiums at the end of February was $682,800. The extremities of this average ranged from a high in West Vancouver at $1,237,100 to a low in Maple Ridge of $307,800. Here is my selection of three areas closest on both sides of the Benchmark. On the higher side, the Benchmark for Burnaby East was $706,700, an increase of 2.6 per cent over the previous month. The Benchmark for Burnaby South was $710,100, an increase of 1.8 per cent over the preceding month; and Vancouver West’s Benchmark at $835,800 was an increase of 2.9 per cent over the previous month. On the lower side, the Benchmark for Port Moody was $668,300, an increase of 4.0 per cent over the previous month. Richmond’s Benchmark at $657,800 was an increase of 1.2 per cent over the previous month; and the Burnaby North Benchmark at $642,500 was an increase of 3.9 per cent over the previous month. These selections are made to guide my clients who are looking to purchase, or sell, one of these property types within the Metro Vancouver region based on the mid-range prices of comparable properties.

There are of course many properties in areas outside the mid-price range I have focused on in my selections above. If you would like to learn more about prices in any other areas of Greater Vancouver, I will be happy to help you find a property that fits your mortgage range. Please feel free to give me a call.

FRASER VALLEY

There was also a decrease – a small one — in the year-over-year number of February sales in the Fraser Valley, a mere 0.8 per cent decline. However, the Valley continues as a high demand area, noted by February’s 14.5 per cent increase over January 2018 sales activity. As has been the case for many months, attached properties – townhouses and condominiums – together represented more than half of all the transactions. Fraser Valley home seekers can again be buoyed with the fact that inventory in February increased 9.5 per cent over the preceding month, bringing the total supply of properties on the market at the end of February to 4,340.

For anyone thinking about listing their property for sale, it is nonetheless a good time because demand continues to be greater than the 10-year average for this time of year. During the month of February, detached properties took on an average of 38 days to sell, while townhouses sold after an average of 28 days, and condominiums on an average of 13 days. I highly recommend home purchases in the Fraser Valley at this time. Prices on average are still below those of comparable properties in Metro Vancouver. The composite Benchmark price for all property types in the Fraser Valley at the end of February was $795,100. For this reason, it is a favorite starting area for young families and singles often looking in the townhouse and condominium market segment. However, there is excellent value to be found in all housing types, and for families who want to start with a detached property, or perhaps move up to detached home from their existing townhouse, the Valley has very good prices. I will review the Benchmark prices for each property type in the space below and will make some recommendations on which areas you might wish to look for your preferred price range.

Detached Homes

The Benchmark price for a single family detached home in the Fraser Valley was $992,100 at the end of February, an increase of 1.0 per cent over the preceding month, and a 15.7 per cent increase year-over-year. Compared with the Metro Vancouver Benchmark of $1,602,000 for a comparable property, you can see why this is an attractive investment. The extremities of this average are not as far apart as Metro Vancouver areas, with South Surrey/White Rock at the high end at $1,482,800 and Mission at the low end at $663,500. Closest to the Valley Benchmark on the higher side at the end of February were: Cloverdale at $1,036,600, a 2.2 per cent increase over January; Langley at $1,028,200, a 0,4 per cent increase over January; and Surrey at $1,019,500, an increase of 0.6 per cent over January. Closest to the Valley Benchmark on the lower side were: North Surrey at $972,100, an increase of 0.6 per cent over January; North Delta at $944,800, an increase of 0.4 per cent over January; and Abbotsford at $803,300, an increase of 2.2 per cent over January.

Townhouses

The Benchmark price for townhouses in the Fraser Valley was $531,000 at the end of February. This average is from the extremities of $656,000 in South Surrey/White Rock and $371,600 in Abbotsford. Closest on the higher side of the Benchmark were: North Surrey at $560,200, an increase of 3.1 per cent over January; Surrey at $569,000, an increase of 2.1 per cent over January; and North Delta at $581,000, an increase of 0.4 per cent over January. Closest to the Benchmark on the lower side were: Langley at $508,500, an increase of 1.9 per cent over January; Abbotsford at $371,600 and increase of 2.7 per cent over January; and Mission at $433,400, an increase of 0.3 per cent over January.

Condominiums

The Benchmark price for condominiums in the Fraser Valley was $422,300 at the end of February. The extremities for this average were $519,00 in South Surrey White Rock and $315,400 in Mission. Closest to this Benchmark on the higher side were: Langley at $424,300, an increase of 4.3 per cent over January; Surrey at $427,400, an increase of 6.3 per cent over January; and Cloverdale at $488,100, an increase of 4.0 per cent over January. Closest on the lower side of the Benchmark price were: North Surrey at $410,400, an increase of 4.8 per cent over January; North Delta at $394,100, an increase of 4.8 per cent over January; and Abbotsford at $315,900, an increase of 5.3 per cent over January.

I selected the above areas to assist you in your search for a home to fit your mortgage capability. Keep in mind that the Benchmark prices are a comparison of comparable properties in their respective categories.

If there is any area that you would like to get more specific information on prices in any area, please feel free to call me. I keep a close eye on new listings and changes in prices, and I am always happy to help in any way I can.

Thanks for reading!

Sibo Zhang, REALTOR®

 

Your Fraser Valley and Metro Vancouver Market Update

 

For the last few months I’ve been talking about the curious slowing of price increases for detached homes in Metro Vancouver. The benchmark price in September for a detached property was $1,617, 300, which is only 0.1 per cent higher than August. That’s a remarkable decline in the month-over- month rate of increase, recalling that in July the benchmark price rose above $1-million for the first time. Obviously, there was a big spike as the price moved quickly to the mid-range between $1-million and $2-million.

So, a good question now is why has it levelled off in the last couple of months? Is demand declining at this price point? I believe there are a combination of factors that need to be considered. A general price equilibrium, even for a short period, is also a function of supply – in other words, the available housing stock. If there are a relatively higher number of listings for comparable detached properties, price can become a more competitive issue for the seller. Alternatively, on the buyers’ side, a shift to other types of housing appears to be occurring at this price level. Last month, the ratio of sales to active listings was approximately 15 per cent for detached homes, while townhouses and apartments made up the rest. By way of a general observation then, it appears that the detached home benchmark price is going to remain stable as long as there are new detached listings coming onstream and the supply of townhouses and apartments also remains strong. I would therefore advise those clients who are committed to buying a detached home, that now is a time to strike. This market segment is always going to increase in the long term, so take advantage of a period when price escalation has slowed. For the rest of my clients who are looking at townhouses and apartments, here are my suggestions for good opportunities based on the latest figures.

For townhouses, the benchmark price for September in the Greater Vancouver area was $786,600, while in the Lower Mainland it was $661,600. At less than 50 per cent of the price for a detached home, this category of home is very attractive to young families, many on starting salaries and therefore wanting affordable monthly mortgage payments. This month I have selected some municipalities that have good value while staying on the lower side of average price for the Lower Mainland. These include: Coquitlam at $641,400; Burnaby (East) at $636,500; Port Coquitlam at $635,400; Port Moody at $605,400; Pitt Meadows at $572,900; and Maple Ridge at $514,600.

For apartments, the benchmark price for September in Greater Vancouver was $635,800; and in the Lower Mainland $585,300. Again, I have selected some municipalities which have average prices on the lower side of the Lower Mainland benchmark in order to assist a large number of clients who are on limited budgets. I have excluded Whistler and Squamish in this selection, although there are some attractively priced apartments in these areas if you wish to live father out. For others, I suggest looking in Burnaby North with a bench mark price at $576,700; North Vancouver at $553,500; New Westminster at $488,600; Coquitlam at $482,300; Ladner at $422,800; Tsawwassen at $451,600; Port Coquitlam at $414,200; Pitt Meadows at $392,300; and Maple Ridge at $262,400.

Fraser Valley

Here’s some really interesting news! If you’ve been following my contest for predicting the month when the Benchmark Price for a single detached home in the Fraser Valley would exceed $1-million, you probably bet the winner would be announced this month. In July, the benchmark price for a Fraser Valley single detached residence was $966,000. It couldn’t get much closer then, but now in September, it has declined to $974,500. Will we see it break the $1-million mark this year, or will it continue to decline? I have now changed the rules of my contest to include guesses in either direction. If you can predict – within 0.25 per cent – how much the benchmark price for a detached residence in the Fraser Valley will change by the end of this month, I will prepare a customized Comparative Market Analysis (CMA) of your current property. Each CMA is an estimate of the owner’s house value using its condition, (neighbourhood study), real estate market study, and recently sold homes in the same area.

Send your guesses to zhangsibo@hotmail.com by the end of this month. Be sure to include your name and phone number so we can collaborate on your CMA. Winners will be announced in my newsletter and on my website www.liveincentralcity.ca.

Looking at other types of residences in the Valley, we see the opposite trend. Benchmark prices for both townhouses and apartments increased month of month – 1.4 per cent higher for townhouses (now $498,900), and 2.5 per cent higher for apartments (now $358,200). These increases are understandable since the Fraser Valley is still a popular area for young families and singles who are purchasing their first residence. For these home seekers, I have again selected some areas in price ranges about equal distance on each side of the benchmark price.

For townhouses, these areas are: Langley at $465,200; North Surrey at $507,900; and Surrey at $534,000.

For apartments, look in the areas of: North Delta at $333,000; North Surrey at $344,000; Surrey at $350,900; Langley at $368,500; and Cloverdale at $415,400.

Please let me know if you have a specific price range or other features in mind for the home you are seeking. I can also help you determine an affordable mortgage for your income and the equity you can build in your home. I love to crunch numbers and to help my clients in any way I can.

Thanks for reading!

Sibo Zhang, REALTOR®

green timbers urbanforest

North Surrey’s Green Timbers Urban Forest

One of my favourite places in Surrey is the Green Timbers Urban Forest, near the King George Skytrain station; or by car just off Green Timbers Way from 140th Street. It’s almost like a secret park – nestled behind big trees that hide it — and sound proof it — from the nearby Fraser Highway. For many families who live in towers or townhouses, this lovely park is their big back yard with lots of space for their kids to play, and for adults just to enjoy experiencing nature’s gifts. The expansive green space has hills and bushes that make for a perfect game of hide-and-seek, or just letting your energetic children run around to their heart’s content. There’s also an enchanted forest – well, the wooded area that can seem like one to a small child who will love to climb on the giant tree stump, or build a fort out of branch poles. At age two, my son Kingston had a wonderful time finding interesting little bugs on the forest floor. His curiosity about nature grew immensely and he still stops any time he sees a little insect on the ground and watches it intently.

Not only is the outdoor area a natural classroom, but the Park also has an indoor learning centre which can be used for social events as well. One year we reserved the large room for my son Warren’s eighth birthday. After he and his friends were worn out from all their outdoor games in the park, everyone came inside for cake and juice, and there were lots of indoor activities for the group as well.

During the school year, the Park offers a great choice of actual outdoor education courses to supplement regular school classes. Teachers can sign up their whole class for special elementary education, and there are even pre-school field trips for younger kids. There’s even something for teachers themselves. For the next Pro-D day, they might want to check out the outdoors teaching workshop offered at the Park.

This fall there are some great programs lined up at Green Timbers. Some are free and others that are longer and have more structure have a charge. For kids aged 3 to 5, there are Saturday morning sessions that are free. On October 20th and November 10 there are free Discovery Days for families with kids of all ages. Activities on these days are from 10 am to 2 pm and include a Nature Guide, books, puppets and other materials in the Sky Room before heading outdoors to explore the natural surroundings. If you have teenagers from 13 to 17 in your family, they can enjoy the Surrey Youth Stewardship Program, which has a collaborative art project and is also free on November 18 from 10 am to 2 pm.

Or there is the 24-session program on Tuesdays and Thursdays starting September 26 for about $400.00. This sounds like a great combination of day care and outdoor education. For older children aged 6 to 9, there are full day Friday classes on November 3rd and 9th which combine art with nature studies for about $50.00.

And I’ve saved for the last an event for what my own kids really love – Halloween! On Saturday October 28, there will be “Halloween in the Forest” from 10 am to 2 pm. This will be a free indoor and outdoor event complete with Halloween treats and a special Forest Fairy for young children.

You can find out more about the great times for families at Surrey’s Green Timbers Urban Forest by phoning 604-502-6065 or visiting the website at http://www.surrey.ca/culture-recreation/2311.aspx

Image via www.surrey.ca

Thanks for reading!

Sibo Zhang, REALTOR®