market statistics

Market conditions bode well for home buyers in the New Year

As we approach the end of 2019, it’s a natural time to wonder what the New Year will bring. Let’s look first at what the past year tells us. Over the past 12 months we’ve had a 4.0 per cent decline in the composite benchmark price for residential properties in Greater Vancouver, and an increase in sales. Total residential sales at the end of November were over 55 per cent higher than one year ago. At the same time, the number of listed homes at the end of November was 10,770, a drop of nearly 13 per cent from November 2018. With lower inventory but increased demand, one would think that prices would have moved up, not down. So how do we account for this peculiar phenomenon? I suggest the primary reason is the ongoing trend in declining prices has been mainly a function of the market correction since government measures were put in place in 2018. So, the question on everyone’s mind is when will prices begin moving upwards again? The answer is, they already have, in some areas. The composite benchmark in Burnaby East, for example, has seen an increase of 1.5 per cent in the past three months; in the same period, Port Coquitlam has increased 1.4 per cent and Vancouver East has increased 1.0 per cent.


Overall, market watchers generally agree that home prices in Greater Vancouver have returned to a level in line with typical prices for the region. Because composite benchmarks are comparative averages, it’s important to look at specific areas to track the monthly price fluctuations. And even here you will find some minor increases and decreases which can be due to the current demand in a particular area. One metric you may also want to keep your eye on at this time is the composite benchmark price for residential properties across all of Metro Vancouver. It is currently $993,700, still below the $1-million mark, which I have often pointed out is an important psychological threshold for both buyers and potential sellers. Over the past six months, this benchmark has declined 1.3 per cent, which may be a reason why new listings have also declined. Since the composite benchmark is made up of individual benchmarks in the region, it can begin moving upwards with slight changes in areas that have shown modest declines. If you are thinking about buying, it’s probably best to make an offer before this happens. The New Year appears to be ready to start with stable market prices, but there is always growing demand for homes we may see a broader range of price increases. If you are thinking of buying, it’s a good time. My selected benchmarks below can help you with the current prices in each property type.


Detached Homes


The benchmark price for a single-family detached home in Greater Vancouver at the end of November was $1,415,400, an increase of 0.3 per cent from the preceding month. The extremities of this average were Vancouver West (not West Vancouver) at $2,904,200 and Sunshine Coast at $588,000. (Note I include the Sunshine Coast only as a factor in the average, but do not report on housing prices in this area because it is to far away for my clients). The three municipalities closest to the benchmark on the higher side of the average were: Burnaby South at $1,486,200, an increase of 0.3 per cent from the preceding month; Richmond at $1,490,800, a decrease of 0.7 per cent from the preceding month; and North Vancouver at $1,497,500, an increase of 2.2 per cent from the preceding month. The three municipalities closest to the benchmark on the lower side of the average were: Port Moody at $1,395,400, an in crease of 0.1 per cent from the preceding month; Burnaby North at $1,380,700, an increase of 1.1 per cent from the preceding month; and Vancouver East at $1,377,100, an increase of 1.2 per cent from the preceding month.

Townhouses

The benchmark price for a townhouse in Greater Vancouver at the end of November was $772,800, an increase of 0.2 per cent from the preceding month. The extremities of this average were Vancouver West (not West Vancouver) at $1,133,900 and Maple Ridge at $529,200. The three municipalities closest to the benchmark on the higher side of the average were: Vancouver East at $861,200, an increase of 1.0 per cent from the preceding month; North Vancouver at $937,100, an in crease of 0.1 per cent from the preceding month; and Vancouver West (not West Vancouver) at $1,133,900, an increase of 1.8 per cent from the preceding month. The three municipalities closest to the benchmark on the lower side of the average were: Burnaby South at $789,600, a decrease of 0.6 per cent from the preceding month; Richmond, at $766,400, a decrease of 0.9 per cent from the preceding month; and New Westminster at $735,400, an increase of 1.5 per cent from the preceding month.

Condominiums

The benchmark price for a condominium in Greater Vancouver at the end of November was $651,500, a decrease of 0.2 per cent from the preceding month. The extremities of this average were West Vancouver at $1,022,700 and Maple Ridge at $347,300. The three municipalities closest to the benchmark on the higher side of the average were: Burnaby East at $718,100, an increase of 1.8 per cent from the preceding month; Vancouver West at $750,400, a decrease of 0.5 per cent from the preceding month; and West Vancouver at $1.022.700, a decrease of 2.5 per cent from the preceding month. The three municipalities closest to the benchmark on the lower side of the average were: Burnaby South at $647,300, an increase of 0.3 per cent from the preceding month; Port Moody at $629,700, a decrease of 0.2 per cent from the preceding month; Richmond at $627,100, an increase of 0.3 per cent from the preceding month.

Merry Christmas and Happy New Year
Your home is a special place and even more appreciated when it can be enjoyed with friends and neighbors this festive season. My family and I wish you a safe and merry holiday season, and best wishes for the New Year.

Thanks for reading!

Sibo Zhang, REALTOR®

A great supply of home listings for affordable spring shopping

If you’ve been waiting for sunnier weather to start home hunting this spring, the month of May has not disappointed – nor has the abundant inventory of listed properties which increased by 16 per cent In April. Figures for the Greater Vancouver area showed there were over 5,700 new listings last month, bringing the total inventory for all housing types to 14,357. This is very close to the total inventory one year ago, putting prospective buyers in a very commanding position to make an offer at this time. Prices on average, having dropped considerably since last summer, are now in an affordable range for more people. We could therefore see a spike in spring sales, so I encourage you to take a look now. Residential home sales in the region last month increased by nearly 6.0 per cent from the month before, and I see no reason why this upward swing will not continue at this time.

There continues to be a focus by news media on the declining number of home sales based on figures from ten years ago. This may make interesting reading for the political interest in government measures behind the price drop in the region. However, I want to point out that what is overlooked in much of this long-term discourse is the short-term activity which holds some important data for anyone in actual purchase mode right now. The increase in month-over-month sales is one indicator that there is still upward price pressure in the market. Note that composite benchmark price for all residential properties in Metro Vancouver was virtually unchanged (0.3 per cent decrease) from March to April. In the specific property types below, I report my selected monthly changes based on benchmark prices for the end of April. But you may be surprised to note that not all areas show a decline. Look for example at the one-month condominium price increases in Burnaby East of 4.5 per cent and 1.5 per cent in Burnaby North. As prices decline some places, they increase in others.                

Detached Homes

The benchmark price for a single-family detached home in Greater Vancouver at the end of April was $1,425,200, a decrease of 0.8 per cent from the preceding month. The extremities of this average were Vancouver West (not West Vancouver) at $2,948,400 and Sunshine Coast at $611,400. (Note I include the Sunshine Coast only as a factor in the average, but do not report on housing prices in this area because it is to far away for my clients). The three municipalities closest to the benchmark on the higher side of the average were: North Vancouver at $1,499,400, a decrease of 0.2 per cent from the preceding month; Richmond at $1,531,000, a decrease of 1.0 per cent from the preceding month; and Burnaby South at $1,532,100, a decrease of 0.8 per cent from the preceding month. The three municipalities closest to the benchmark on the lower side of the average were: Burnaby North at $1,391,000, a decrease of 1.5 per cent from the preceding month; Port Moody at $1,366,200, a decrease of 2.6 per cent from the preceding month; and Vancouver East at $1,357,200, a decrease of 2.4 per cent from the preceding month. 

Townhouses

The benchmark price for a townhouse in Greater Vancouver at the end of April was $783,300, no change cent from the preceding month. The extremities of this average were Vancouver West (not West Vancouver) at $1,167,700 and Maple Ridge at $542,600. The three municipalities closest to the benchmark on the higher side of the average were: Vancouver East at $816,500, a decrease of 0.6 per cent from the preceding month; North Vancouver at $957,700, a decrease of 0.5 per cent from the preceding month; and Vancouver West at $1,167,700, a decrease of 1.4 per cent from the preceding month. The three municipalities closest to the benchmark on the lower side of the average were: Richmond at $780,200, a decrease of 1.4 per cent from the preceding month; Burnaby South at $679,200, a decrease of 1.3 per cent from the preceding month; and Burnaby North at $708,900, a decrease of 2.4 percent from the preceding month. 

Condominiums

The benchmark price for a condominium in Greater Vancouver at the end of April was $656,900, no change from the preceding month. The extremities of this average were West Vancouver at $1,128,500 and Maple Ridge at $348,600. The three municipalities closest to the benchmark on the higher side of the average were: Burnaby South at $679,200, a decrease of 0.3 per cent from the preceding month; Burnaby East at $754,900 an increase of 4.5 per cent from the preceding month; and Vancouver West (not West Vancouver) at $764.600, a decrease of 0.6 per cent from the preceding month. The three municipalities closest to the  benchmark on the lower side of the average were: Richmond at $654,900, a decrease of 0.2 per cent from the preceding month; Port Moody at $633,000, a decrease of 0.3 per cent from the preceding month; and Burnaby North at $611,800, an increase of 1.5 per cent from the preceding month. 

How Can I Help?

Please let me know how I can help you.  There are many factors in your decision-making process that I am qualified to advise on. Whether you are wondering about mortgage planning and finance procedures, or desiring information on a specific property or area, I can help.  If you considering listing your property for sale, I am able to advise you on the optimal price and provide you with a detailed market comparison to other properties in your area of interest. And remember, I can recommend reputable and quality tradespeople if you are considering home renovations.  It gives me great pleasure when I can assist my clients in any way.  

Thanks for reading!

Please contact me for more information.

604-779-7992

sibo.zhang@gmail.com

Sibo Zhang

Metro Vancouver/Fraser Valley Market Update, November 2017

November has announced that Winter is just around the corner. The noticeable drop in temperature is a good reminder to get prepared for the coming season; snow tires, Christmas decorations, maybe a short holiday to a warmer region. There are lots of things to do before winter rolls around.

Metro Vancouver

Another noticeable thermometer change of a different sort this November – with importance for home shoppers – was the big jump in residential sales last month. The Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver reported that October’s sales volume was 7.1 per cent higher than September’s, and a huge 35.3 per cent higher than one year ago. In fact, last month’s sales volume was 15 per cent higher than the 10-year average for the month of October. However, there’s one prominent figure that has remained almost unchanged from last month – and very close to what it was this past summer: the composite benchmark price for all residential properties in Metro Vancouver. My monthly newsletter readers have been following my review of this benchmark price since it surpassed the $1-million mark in July this year. Since then, its rate of increase has really slowed down – a psychological threshold I have speculated – with the October price of $1,042,300 a mere 0.5 per cent higher than the preceding September bench mark price. And what is particularly interesting is that this rate of increase is exactly the same as the rate of decrease for the benchmark price of a detached property ($1,609,600) in the same month-over-month period. Now, that may well be just a curious coincidence, but it makes one suspect a hidden inverse correlation between detached properties and other types of residences in the current market. In other words, are homebuyers shifting from one housing type to another at this price level? If so, this would support my hypothesis of a price threshold for detached homes; and there was a similar increase in sales activity for both townhouses and condominiums in October.

The October benchmark price for apartments increased 1.0 per cent from the September 2017 price, to reach $642,000. The benchmark price increase for townhouses for the same period was 2.0 per cent, reaching $812,400. These prices are still attracting a lot of buyers. The inventory of available properties in Metro Vancouver in October was 9,137, a decrease of 3.5 per cent from September. Below I have selected some areas where the benchmark prices (as of October 2017) for apartments and condominiums – the market segment of interest to most of my clients – are currently recommended for viewing.

For apartments, I have selected four areas that are closest to the Metro Vancouver benchmark price of $642,000. Each of these areas has its own benchmark price above $600,000, providing prospective buyers with similar property characteristics in the same price range but in distinctly different geographical locations. As usual I have also indicated the most recent rate of price change from the preceding month. You can then narrow your search according to your preferred area to live. In South Burnaby the benchmark price was $664,200, which was the same price in the preceding month; in Burnaby East, where the benchmark price was $661,100, with a decrease of 3.1 per cent from the preceding month; in Port Moody, which had a benchmark price of $613,399 and a 2.0 per cent increase from the preceding month; and Richmond, where the benchmark price was $609,600 with a 1.6 per cent increase from the preceding month.

For townhouses, the benchmark price for Metro Vancouver was $802,400. I have again selected four areas closest to this price, excluding Whistler and West Vancouver because they are each over the $1-million threshold, and Squamish at 899,900, simply because most of my clients are looking for something closer to Vancouver. The four remaining areas are: North Vancouver at $977,000 with a 1.3 per cent increase over the preceding month; Vancouver East at $855,200 with a 0.2 per cent increase over the preceding month; Richmond at $800,000 with a 0.2 per cent decrease over the preceding month; and Burnaby South at 762,300 with a 1.9 per cent increase over the preceding month.

Fraser Valley

If you are in the market for a townhouse or condominium, the Fraser Valley is where I have been directing my readers for value properties at prices that are still within the range of first-time buyer budgets. Certainly, I can help you find a detached property if that is what you are after. The benchmark price in October for a single family detached home was $971,900, which is close to the benchmark price in Metro Vancouver, but still under the $1-million mark. So, if the same pattern holds for price increases as discussed above, the rate of increase may start slowing down soon. It will be interesting to watch if this pattern holds in the Valley as it has done in Metro Vancouver. However, the major sales focus in the Valley is still in the market segment for attached properties. This typically offers what young families are looking for in a townhouse, or for young singles just starting out with a condo. This is an excellent strategy for your longer-term living plans because you start building equity in owning a property. As your family may grow, and your work career develops, you will be in market in which you can move up in value if you like. This is a much more desirable position to be in than trying at a later stage to get into a market that is relentlessly pushing upwards in value.

But there is only one way to describe sales activity in the Valley – it is hot! This past October saw overall sales reach the second highest level in history, with an increase of 23 per cent over October 2016, and 11.1 per cent higher than September 2017. The attached sales were 56 per cent of all market activity with sales of condominiums reaching 591 units and townhouses at 418.

The October benchmark price for a Valley townhouse was $502,800 and for a condominium, $369,400. I have again selected some areas where I see some very good value at prices that are in the affordable range for my clients. I hope you will find the following selection a useful guide in your search for what you want. Each of my selected areas is as close possible to the benchmark price while remaining in the $500,000 range with the $100,000 increment for each benchmark price. I have also included the last month’s rate of change in the price for that area.

For townhouses, the October Valley benchmark price in North Delta was $579, 300 with a 0.8 per cent increase over the preceding month; Cloverdale at $562,700 with a 0.4 per cent increase; Surrey at $540,300 with a 1.2 per cent increase; and North Surrey at $510,600 with a 0.8 per cent increase.

For condominiums, the October Valley benchmark price in Langley was $379,100 with a increase of 2.9 per cent increase over the preceding month; Surrey, at $364,200 with a 3.8 per cent increase; North Surrey at $354,800 with a 3.2 per cent increase; and North Delta at $345,100 with a 3.6 per cent increase.

Please let me know if I can help you with any specific market questions. I am more than happy to crunch the numbers that can help you make the best decision for your home buying plans.

Thanks for reading!

Sibo Zhang, REALTOR®

Sibo’s Market Update for Metro Vancouver / Fraser Valley Sept. 2017

 

Let’s start this month with something curious that appears to be happening in the detached home market in Metro Vancouver. You may recall last month when I reported the Benchmark price for a residential property had surpassed the $1-million mark for the first time in July. I said then that this may have created a psychological attitude from a buyer’s point of view, where many home hunters make the decision to look at another market segment, either townhouses or condominiums. This month I can tell you that’s precisely what is happening. But it remains to be seen if I was completely correct or only half right on the whole equation. While there has been a clear spike in sales of townhouses and condominiums, my prediction was that detached family homes would rise in price at a rate faster than before the $1-million threshold. This latter speculation has not yet happened, although it’s too early to detect a trend. The Benchmark price for a detached property in August was $1,615,100, which is only a 0.2 per cent increase over the preceding month. The increase from June to July was 2.1 per cent so for the time being anyway, the detached home price appears not to be escalating. This might be for various reasons, but for anyone wanting to get into a detached home, they should probably move quickly. It’s a safe bet that the price in the Metro Vancouver is not going to decline. What may be keeping the rate of increase this low is an unexpected increase in the supply. Compared to August a year previous, sales of detached homes were nearly 23 per cent higher this year. It may well be that a segment of sellers also held the $1-million mark as their selling point, so I will stick with my longer-term prediction that the rate of increase will pick up once this segment clears in sales.

Metro Vancouver

Looking at the rather hot Metro Vancouver market in August for attached properties, the Benchmark price for a townhouse was $778,300 and for a condo, $626,800, compared with the previous month at, $763,700 and $616,600 respectively. You can see that prices are moving up quickly in this market segment so I have analyzed for you here some areas you may want to check out. I have selected a Benchmark price range for August from the low $600,000s to the low $700,000s combined with areas with lowest month-over-month rate of increase. I think this may be good guide for a large segment of my clients.

For townhouses, Port Moody was at $608,700 with a last month rate of increase of 1.9 per cent. For New Westminster: $652,700 with a last month rate increase of 0.9 percent. For the top of my selected range I am using two areas close in both geographical location and price: Tsawwassen ($720,100 with a negative last month rate of increase of 0.9 per cent) and Ladner ($733,900 also with a negative last month rate of increase at 0.6 per cent). While a single month does not itself show the rate of increase will remain low in the long term, in these cases I think sit is reasonably good indicator of greater price stability than some other areas.

For condominiums, I have selected a Benchmark price in a range from the low $400,000s to the low $500,000, again combined with lowest last month rate of increase. Port Coquitlam was at $412,200 with a last month rate of increase of 2.8 per cent. Coquitlam was $476,900 with a last month rate of increase of 3.8 per cent. New Westminster: $480,000 with a one-month rate of increase of 2.8 per cent. And Vancouver East at $529,000 with a last month rate of increase of 0.9 per cent. As with townhouses, the single month rate of increase is not a long-term predictor, but I think it’s a reasonably reliable indicator for price stability for at least the short term.

Fraser Valley

I’m betting September will be month that the Fraser Valley Composite Benchmark Price (CBP) for a residential property goes over the $1-million mark, as it did in Metro Vancouver in July this year. If you’ve been following my contest, I have been offering a prize to the person who guesses closest to the CBP over $1-million and the month in which it will occur. The CBP for a residential property in the Fraser Valley for July was $966,000. To reach $1-million would require a 3.6 per cent increase over July, which is a big jump for one month. I think it will take two months and if I’m correct we’ll see that when the September statistics are out next month. So, this may be your last chance to make a guess and win a customized Comparative Market Analysis (CMA) of your current property. Each CMA is an estimate of the owner’s house value using its condition, location (neighbourhood study), real estate market study, and recently sold homes in the same area. Send me your guesses (sibo@sibozhang.com) by the end of this month (September 2017). Our winner(s) will be announced in a coming newsletter and on my website. Be sure to include your name and phone number so we can collaborate on your CMA.

The Valley saw, once again, a high demand for townhouses and apartments in August. The Benchmark Price for a townhouse as $491,900 in August, a one month increase of 1.0 per cent over July. For apartments, the BP was $349,300, a one month increase of 2.4 per cent over July. I have many clients wanting to find a quality attached residence in the Fraser Valley so again this month I have selected some areas with an affordable price range.

For townhouses, a price range that many young families are looking for is from the mid-$300,000s to about $500,000. Along with these Benchmark Prices (BP) I have also included the last month rate of increase so you can get a basic idea of the market activity there. For the least expensive townhouses you would have to go as far out as Mission where the BP in August was $392,500 with a 3.0 per cent last month rate of increase. For Abbotsford: $340,500 with 1.9 per cent last month increase. For Langley: $464,500 with a 0.7 per cent last month rate of increase. For North Delta, $501,000 with a 0.6 per cent last month rate of increase. As you can see, the BP rises as you get closer to Metro Vancouver.

For apartments, I know many young people are looking for a residence that is affordable within a starting salary range, so I’ve selected areas with a range of August Benchmark prices from the $200,000s to the mid-$300,000s. This time the least expensive is in Abbotsford at $259,800 with a 1.4 per cent last month rate of increase. Next in price is Mission at $273,200 with a last month rate of increase of 1.5 per cent. North Delta is $324,100 with a last month rate of increase at negative 0.4 per cent. North Surrey at $333,900 with a last month rate of increase at 3.0 per cent. And Surrey at $345,900 with a last month rate of increase at 0.4 per cent. You may have noticed the difference from townhouse prices here, as the least expensive apartments are not necessarily the farthest from Metro Vancouver.

image via biv.com

Thanks for reading!

Sibo Zhang, REALTOR®