sibo zhang

April’s Market Update for Metro Vancouver and the Fraser Valley

OUR CURRENT RESIDENTIAL MARKET

As we move into the second quarter of 2018, I’m sure everyone is looking forward to more sunshine and fewer rainy days. The weather can be a factor in our outlook and affect our decision-making even on major transactions like buying or selling a residential property. That’s a good reason to pay close attention to some key market trends occurring in local prices and inventories. With so much recent news on new government regulations and taxes on property, it’s easy to develop negative views that are not wholly informed by the facts of the marketplace. Another thing that can contribute to unnecessary pessimism is an over-emphasis on longer term historical comparisons. Regular readers of my monthly newsletter get a picture of the marketplace which is as up-to-date as available statistics make possible, allowing them to understand the where and why of prevailing prices in a context that is relevant to current circumstances. I will continue to breakdown the market segments for each property type in the following geographical regions of Metro Vancouver and the Fraser Valley.

METRO VANCOUVER

In the past month of March there were total of 4,450 new listings in Metro Vancouver which was increase of 5.4 per cent over the preceding February. That’s good news for the active home seeker; yet, it’s fewer than the 4,762 listings that occurred in the same month one year ago. The latter statistic might be of interest in broader academic analysis of the Vancouver residential market, but it’s probably not going to affect a decision to buy or sell at the current time because the prevailing market psychology doesn’t believe that prices are going to move backwards in time. 00 For that reason, I am always talking to my clients to understand what they really want to know for the decisions that are important to them. And what I hear is that you wish to know about what is happening now, and in a context of what it points to in the near term. So here are my selected key metrics based on market activity tabulated on the end of last month.

Across all residential property types in Metro Vancouver there were 2,517 sales at the end of March. This was 14 per cent higher than the preceding month of February, so we can see there is still upward pressure on based on demand and the relatively low increase in new listings. At the end of March, the total inventory of listed homes in Metro Vancouver was 8,380. Breaking down the demand in each property type, we see 14.2 per cent for detached homes; 39.9 per cent for townhouses; and 61.6 per cent for condominiums. The composite Benchmark price for all Metro Vancouver residential properties at the end of March was $1,084,000, an increase of 1.1 per cent over one month. Below I will look at each property type in more detail.

Detached Properties

The Benchmark price for a detached residential property in the Greater Vancouver area at the end of March was $1,608,500, more than half a million dollars above the composite benchmark price for the region. This may give you an idea of a general price level. However,it needs to be considered in relationship to the property types factored into the composite benchmark, which we can look at under their individual headings below. For Single Family Detached homes, the Benchmark price is an average between price extremities of $3,449,000 in Vancouver West (noteworthy: higher than West Vancouver at $3,115,400.) and $606,000 on the Sunshine Coast. I have selected three municipalities closest on the upper side of the Benchmark, and three which are closest on the lower side, where you can see the price change in the past month. On the higher side of the Benchmark were South Burnaby at $1,673,700, a decline of 0.5 per cent in one month; Richmond at $1,708,400, an increase of 0.6 per cent in one month; and North Vancouver at $1,723,200, an increase of 2.2 per cent in one month. On the lower side of the Benchmark are North Burnaby at $1,544,100, an increase of 0.7 per cent in one month; Vancouver East at $1,553,100, a decrease of 0.5 per cent in one month; and Port Moody at $1,484,800, an increase of 0.1 per cent in one month.

Townhouses

The Benchmark price for townhouses in the Greater Vancouver area at the end of March was $835,300, an increase of 2.0 per cent over one month. This average had extremities of $1,271,000 in Vancouver West, and increase of 1.7 per cent in one month; and $575,100 in Maple Ridge, an increase of 4.3 per cent in one month. Excluding Squamish and Whistler for their distance from Metro Vancouver, I have selected three municipalities closest on each side of the Benchmark. On the upper side are Vancouver East at $908,200, an increase of 4.5 per cent in one month; North Vancouver at $1,005,400, an increase of 0.7 per cent in one month; and Vancouver West at $1,271,000, an increase of 1.7 per cent in one month.

Condominiums

The Benchmark price for condominiums in the Greater Vancouver areas at the end of March was $693,500, an increase of 1.6 per cent in one month. The extremities for this average were West Vancouver at $1,278,600 and Ladner at $459,300. Again, excluding Squamish and Whistler because of their distance for Metro Vancouver buyers, here are three municipalities with closest prices on the upper and lower side of the Benchmark, along with their month over month price change: South Burnaby at $727,300, an increase of 2.4 per cent in one month; East Burnaby at $727,800, an increase of 3.0 per cent in one month; and Vancouver West at $844,700, an increase of 1.1 per cent in one month. Closest to the Benchmark on the lower side were Port Moody at $675,000, an increase of 1.0 per cent in month; Richmond at $659,700, an increase of 0.3 per cent in one month; and North Burnaby at $641,600, a decrease of 0.1 per cent in one month.

FRASER VALLEY

The Valley continues to be a very active market which shows no sign of slowing. With Spring around the corner, I urge anyone who is seriously contemplating a purchasing a Valley residence of any type to take advantage of open houses in their desired category. There were 2,865 new listings in March which was a close to a 25 per cent increase from February’s new listings. Keep in mind that new property listings in an active market can attract more prospective buyers, especially as the weather invites more viewers. Even with an increased inventory, demand is still very strong putting upward pressure on prices. At the end of last month there was a total inventory almost 5,000 properties overall. Townhouses and condominiums made up just over 50 per cent of all Valley sales and were the fastest to sell after their listing, on average 16 days for a townhouse and 13 days for a condominium. Single detached homes sold on average in 30 days after listing. Below I examine at each property type by their current Benchmark prices and make some recommendations on which municipalities you might wish to look.

Single Family Detached

A major milestone has been reached in the Fraser Valley. The million-dollar mark for a single detached residence was reached for the first time at the end of March with a Benchmark price $1,001,400, an increase of 0.9 per cent in one month. We have been waiting for several months to see this threshold reached. It now remains to be seen if this will be a psychological threshold as well, both for buyers and sellers. For the former, some prospective buyers may decide they are now priced out of a single detached home and begin to look for a home of another property type. For sellers, we will have to see if the new price level encourages more listings. Focusing on prices closest to this Benchmark average, along with their month-over-month price change, here is my standard selection of three areas above and below the Benchmark. On the upper side of the Benchmark were: Langley at $1.026,600, a decrease of 0.2 per cent in one month; Surrey at $1,031,500, an increase of 1.2 per cent in one month; and Cloverdale at $1,045,400, an increase of 0.8 per cent in one month. Closest on the lower side of the Benchmark price were: North Surrey at $980,100, an increase of 0.8 per cent in one month; North Delta at $950,200, an increase of 0.6 per cent in one month; and Abbotsford at $814,000, an increase of 1.3 per cent in one month.

Townhouses

The Benchmark price for a Fraser Valley townhouse at the end of March was $541,800, an increase of 2.0 per cent in one month. The extremities of this average were South Surrey/White Rock at $678,000 and Abbotsford at $383,000. Municipalities with prices closest to the Benchmark were: On the upper side, North Surrey at $573,800, an increase of 2.4 per cent in one month; Surrey at $577,800, an increase of 1.6 per cent in one month; and North Delta at $591,300, an increase of 1.8 per cent in one month; closest on the lower side of the Benchmark were: Langley at $514,900, an increase of 1.3 per cent in one month; Mission at $446,500, an increase of 3.0 per cent in one month; and Abbotsford at $383,000, an increase of 3.1 per cent in one month.

Condominiums

The Valley Benchmark at the end of March for condominiums was $440,400, an increase of or 4.3 per cent in one month. The extremities for this average were South Surrey/White Rock at $524,100 and Mission at $329,500. Municipalities with prices closest on the upper side of this Benchmark were: Langley at $444,500, an increase of 4.8 per cent in one month; Surrey at $452,300, an increase of 5.8 per cent in one month; and Cloverdale at $507,100, an increase of 3.9 per cent in one month. On the lower side of the Benchmark, the closest prices were in North Delta at $425,900, an increase of 8.1 per cent in one month; North Surrey, at $424,900, an increase of 3.5 per cent in one month; and Abbotsford at $336,600, an increase of 6.6 per cent in one month.

AFTERWORD

In closing, I suggest you pay close attention to any trends you may spot in the month-over-month increases in Benchmark prices that I mention in each newsletter. This may help you see where prices are driven by demand and as you become familiar with increases – or decreases – in the short term, this may assist your decision making. However, keep in mind that there may be other factors that cause price changes which is out of the usual range. If you have any questions and need specific information on any housing type in any of the areas in the lower mainland, please don’t hesitate to call me. I keep an close eye on the residential market, and I want to help my clients find what they are looking for, or to make a listing decision when the time is right.

Thanks for reading!

Sibo Zhang, REALTOR®

Your January Real Estate Recap for Metro Vancouver and the Fraser Valley

A New Year and New Considerations

As we launch into a new year of residential sales across B.C.s Lower Mainland, there are developing issues that prospective home buyers and sellers will want to track, such as how increased mortgage rates and how new government regulations on qualifying for a mortgage may affect the market. I want to help my readers keep abreast of these developments and to make sense of the real estate market dynamics, so I invite you to check this newsletter each month for the latest updates.

In this my first newsletter of 2018, I will start with an overview of the how the residential market place looks compared with last year. This will give you a baseline for watching trends over the coming year, and hopefully will help your plans for either a selling or buying transaction, or simply being an interested observer of one of Canada’s most active real estate market places. I will start first with Metro Vancouver, with the most recent figures from the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver

METRO VANCOUVER

Overall, residential prices in the Greater Vancouver area (Metro Vancouver) rose substantially during 2017. The composite Benchmark price for all residential properties in Metro Vancouver at the end of last year was $1,050.300. That was almost 16 per cent higher than one year earlier. Breaking down the year-over-year increase to different property types, detached properties rose 7.9 per cent; townhouses rose 18.5 per cent; and condominiums rose 25.9 per cent. The higher relative price increases reflect greater sales activity in the latter two categories.

Detached properties

As was the case for much of last year, detached properties did not show large month-to-month price increases. In that category it still appears to be waiting game. Owners of detached homes are not rushing to list their properties at a Benchmark price of $1,605,800. If it is price that determines when to list a property for sale (remember the maxim: ‘everything has its price’), this suggests owners see more residual value in their detached properties than the current price level would fetch. There was actually a decrease of 54 per cent in detached listings from November to December 2017. So, if you want to consider the purchase of a detached home at this time, I believe it would be an excellent investment even at Benchmark price over $1.5-million. You should also keep in mind that new government regulations on mortgage qualifications (see my blog post for December 2017, Your December Real Estate Recap), as well as the prospect of higher interest rates coming later this year, will likely shrink the number of buyers for higher priced properties in the detached property category. For home seekers with a lower price in mind, I would recommend looking in townhouse or condominium market where there are some very good opportunities with Benchmark prices for properties in Metro Vancouver still under $1-million.

Townhouses and Condominiums

The Benchmark price for townhouses in Metro Vancouver at the beginning of 2018 was $803,700 and for condominiums $655,400. For townhouses, this was a slight decrease of 0.2 per cent from the previous month, while for condos it was an increase of 1.1 per cent. In last month’s newsletter I said I would watch a possible widening in the difference between townhouse and condo prices based on monthly increases and decreases. The current differential is a total of a 1.3 per cent compared to last month’s 0.7 per cent, so it is continuing to look as if a widening gap is beginning. It is too early to be certain at this time, but I’ll continue to track this metric so you can check next month to see how it is developing. Below is a breakdown of my suggested areas to look for these two property types based on Benchmark prices at the end of December 2017. This month I have selected three areas with the greatest month-over-month increase and three with the biggest declines, but each with prices still under $1-million.

For townhouses, the greatest increases in Benchmark prices were in East Vancouver at $879,200, a 2.0 per cent increase over one month; Ladner at $776,900, a 2.7 per cent increase over one month; and North Burnaby at $728,200, a 2.3 per cent increase over one month. The biggest decreases from the preceding month (excluding the outlying areas of Whistler and Squamish) were in North Vancouver at $982,800, a decrease of 0.1 per cent over one month; Port Coquitlam at $632,700, a decrease of 0.5 per cent over one month; and Maple Ridge at $527,500, a decrease of 1.0 per cent over one month.

For condominiums, the greatest increase in Benchmark prices were in Richmond at $637,200 an increase over one month of 4.0 per cent; Pitt Meadows at $422,800, an increase over month of 2.1 per cent; and Burnaby East at $681,400, an increase over one month of 1.9 per cent. Two others also had month-over-month increases of 1.9 per cent: New Westminster at $503,300 and Coquitlam at $502,900. Three areas had one month decreases: North Vancouver at $560,600, down 1.0 per cent; Tsawassen at $462,400, down 1.1 per cent; and Vancouver West at $807,100, down 0.5 per cent.

FRASER VALLEY

The Benchmark price for a detached property in the Fraser Valley at the end of last year was $976,400, a slight increase from the preceding month but still under the $1-million bracket in Metro Vancouver. However, as was the case throughout the year, townhouse and condominium sales dominated residential sales in the Valley at the end of 2017. These two property types made up more than half of all Valley sales 2017, with 5,198 townhouses and 6,183 condominiums.

The Fraser Valley continues to be the area of choice for many first-time home buyers in 2018, both for young families and individuals starting out in their careers. It offers very attractive properties in comfortable and enjoyable neighborhoods with excellent lifestyle options for both families and singles. Public transportation planning across the region makes any of the municipalities an excellent investment option for the long term. And with prices still significantly below those in Metro Vancouver, the Fraser Valley continues as one of the hottest residential markets. In the month December 2017, there were a total of 1,344 sales, the second highest December volume ever. Nonetheless, there were 1,277 new listings during the month, and the inventory for December 2017 ended with 3,818 active listings, so I encourage anyone looking for Valley home to shop seriously at this time. Below I make my monthly recommendations for the areas to search for excellent value. For each property type this first month of January, 2018, I have chosen to compare the year-over-year increase along with the last month increase or decrease. In some municipalities the Benchmark price has crept above the $1-million mark for the first time. Many clients in this market segment want to consider their investment compared to Metro Vancouver, so I have therefore selected four municipalities where the detached Benchmark price is over $1-million. For townhouses and condos, I have selected areas with the biggest increase from one year earlier.

Detached Homes

At the end of 2017, the December Benchmark price in Surrey/White Rock was $1,472,300, an increase of 4.8 per cent from one year earlier, and an increase of 0.2 per cent from the preceding month. The Benchmark price for a detached property in Surrey Central was $1,014,900, an increase of 17.1 per cent from one year earlier, and an increase from one month earlier was 0.2 per cent. In Cloverdale, the December Benchmark price was $1,004,900, an increase of 17.2 per cent from one year earlier, and an increase of 0.7 per cent from the preceding month. In Langley the December Benchmark price was $1,002,200, an increase of 15.8 per cent from one year earlier, and a decrease of 0.5 per cent from the preceding month.

Townhouses

The biggest year-over-year increase in townhouse Benchmark prices at the end of December 2017 was in North Surrey with a Benchmark price of $414,200, an increase of 28.8 per cent from the end of 2016, and a 1.8 per cent increase over the preceding month. The Benchmark price in Surrey Central was $549,700, an increase of 27.2 per cent from the end of 2016, and an increase of 1.6 per cent from the preceding month. In Cloverdale, the Benchmark price was $572,600, an increase of 26.9 per cent and a 0.9 per cent increase from the preceding month.

Condominiums

North Delta saw the biggest year-over-year increase in the Benchmark price for condominiums. There the Benchmark price at the end of 2017 was $361,800, an increase of 44.1 per cent since the end of 2016, and a 3.9 per cent increase over the preceding month. The Benchmark price in Langley was $396,900, and increase of 40.3 per cent over one year, and an increase of 2.0 per cent from the preceding month. In Abbotsford, the Benchmark price was $286,600, an increase of 33.6 per cent over one year, and a increase of 2.5 per cent from the preceding month.

I hope you fill find these suggestions helpful, and I wish you great success in your home search or sale as we begin this new year. I am always eager to help my clients in any way I can. Remember, I keep a close watch on market changes, so please feel free to call me any time you have a question.

Thanks for reading!

Sibo Zhang, REALTOR®

Your December Real Estate Recap

With Christmas almost here, I know it’s a bustling time that can also be somewhat stressful even as we enjoy festive activities, often in the homes of our friends and relatives. For my clients who are currently in the market to buy a home, this can also be a good season to refresh your spirits from your hard work, and look forward to next Christmas when you are entertaining guests in your new home. It’s a happy season when we can really appreciate the value of home ownership – something that enhances our enjoyment of life and gives us a sense of stability with a longer-term focus for our daily routines.

The Metro Vancouver housing market has given us a gift this season as well. There were over 4,000 newly listed residential properties in the month of November. On top of that, the composite benchmark price for all properties increased a mere 0.4 per cent from October, so there is good reason to actively pursue the home you want at this time. It’s probably wise to think that the modest monthly price increases that have been occurring over recent months will not continue forever. Keep in mind that this past November’s composite benchmark price was 14 per cent higher than one year ago. We don’t have a crystal ball to tell us when the next major surge in demand may suddenly drive prices much higher, but we can be reasonably certain that Vancouver will continue to attract more home buyers, even at the higher end for a single family detached home which is currently at a benchmark in Metro Vancouver of $1,608.000. Prices above the $1-million psychological threshold that I have talked about for several months will eventually begin to move higher more quickly.

For other property types, the November benchmark price for Metro Vancouver townhouses was $805,200; and for condominiums, $648,200. As with detached properties, a similar modest monthly price increase occurred with a 0.3 per cent increase for townhouses, but for condominiums it was a full 1.0 per cent higher than October. I will monitor this differential in the coming months because I see a possible rate of change widening between townhouses and condominiums. Consider that the six-month differences were increases of 8.7 per cent for townhouses and 11.0 per cent for condominiums; and the twelve-month difference was an increase of 17.9 per cent for townhouses and 23.9 per cent for condominiums. There appears to an upward sloping curve developing faster for price increases of condos, which I will keep you informed about in future newsletters. Below is a breakdown of my suggested areas to look for these two property types based on November’s figures.

For townhouses, there are six areas that showed an increased price of less than 0.1 per cent from October. With their respective Benchmark prices in November, these were: Vancouver West at $1,268,200, an increase of 0.3 per cent; North Vancouver at $983,600, an increase of 0.7 per cent; Vancouver East at $861,900, an increase of 0.8 per cent; Richmond at $805,500, an increase of 0.7 per cent; New Westminster at $682,300, an increase of 0.5 per cent; and Maple Ridge at $532,900, and increase of 0.6 per cent.

For condominiums, there are four areas that showed an increased price of less than 0.1 per cent from October. With their respective Benchmark prices in November, these were: Vancouver West at $811,200, an increase of 0.6 per cent; Richmond at $612,900, an increase of 0.5 per cent; Vancouver East at $540,300, an increase of 0.3 per cent; and New Westminster at $493,900, an increase of 0.6 per cent.

Fraser Valley

The Valley remains a popular area for young families and singles buying their first home. The benchmark price for a Single Family Detached home is still under the $1-million mark despite months of speculation that it would surpass this threshold very soon. The November price of $972,700 was only 0.1 per cent higher than October, so like Metro Vancouver, the monthly rate of increase is still low and generally stable at present. The rate of increase for the same property type from one year ago was 13.5 per cent. It’s probably safe to assume that this rate of increase will continue similarly, or even accelerate over the next year. Even continuing at the same rate, it would mean in one year the benchmark price will be over the $1-million mark. For this reason, anyone looking to buy a Single Family Detached Property in the Valley might want to make that purchase soon. One area that is very close to reaching the $1-million benchmark price are Cloverdale at $998,100, followed by two others: North Surrey at $941,800 and North Delta at $914,900. I would be happy to show you some homes that would be good investments in any of these areas.

The greatest sales activity in the Fraser Valley continues to be in attached homes, with 425 townhouses and 426 condominiums sold in November. The market is still “hot” so I encourage anyone who is really wanting to buy in the region to make an offer without delaying. The average length of time to sell a townhouse last month was 21 days, and 17 days for a condominium. These two property types provide some affordable prices, especially for young singles who are getting into the condominium market for the first time, or young couples who are looking for larger townhouse to start raising a family. The November benchmark price for Valley townhouse was $505,700, and for a condominium $376,700. You can see at these prices why the Valley is so popular. Below, I have selected some areas where I think there are some excellent choices for buyers who are watching current prices.

For townhouses, this month I want to draw your attention to the areas of North Delta, and South Surrey/White Rock. Both these areas have seen an interesting benchmark price change from October to November. They are the only two Fraser Valley areas where the townhouse benchmark has actually decreased. A decrease in price is unusual when so many people are looking to buy, but it does not necessarily mean that the value of the property has decreased. Decreases can occur in short term periods depending on variety of reasons, ranging from the supply-demand ratio to a specific seller’s personal circumstances and desire to sell. In North Delta, the November benchmark price for a townhouse was $564,100, a 2.5 per cent decrease from October. In South Surrey/White Rock, the benchmark price was $642,600, a 0.8 per cent decrease from October. For condominiums, I suggest my clients would find a very nice unit in a price range similar to the Valley benchmark price in the following areas: Here I have also included the one month rate of change since October. There were no decreases for this property type. Starting as far out as Langley, the benchmark price was $389,900, a 2.6 per cent increase; Surrey was at $371,900, a 2.1 per cent increase; North Surrey at $362,000, a 2.0 per cent increase; and North Delta at $328,100, a 0.9 per cent increase.

I am always keeping my eye on market trends, so please give me a call if you have any questions at all about home prices, or what is available for your specific needs. I love to work with numbers, and people, and I am happy to look at your specific requirements to help you with the purchase or sale of your home.

Thanks for reading!

Sibo Zhang, REALTOR®

Fairness Should Be Restored to Financial Transactions

I recently noted a very interesting development about changes to Canada’s law governing railroad cargo service in this country. As I understand the proposed change, which comes after years of complaints by grain farmers, in the future there will be “reciprocal penalties” for not fulfilling shipping agreements. Reciprocal means applying equally to both parties in an agreement. In the past, the shipper was the only party held responsible for not holding up his end of the bargain. If the shipper missed getting his cargo to the train on time, the shipper paid a penalty. The change will mean that if the railway company is to blame, then the shipper will also be able collect a penalty in the form of a payment from the railway. This seems so basically fair it is hard to imagine why it is only coming into existence now; but my reason for noting this is not to comment on railway service, which is not my area of expertise. What I find so interesting is that this reveals a basic principle of fairness – one that I think should be implemented in several other areas of our lives.

We are accustomed to problems arising from technologies that don’t work properly, to many other issues that can cause irritation and which actually cost us time and money – unfairly. Take for example, bank service charges. We pay them because the bank or credit union, which makes money on our deposits, says they are a charge for the service they provide to us in managing our account. This would include holding our deposits safely, keeping track of our deposits and withdrawals, and providing us with a statement of these transactions each month. But what if the bank makes a mistake? Recently, a friend of mine showed me his bank statement which had withdrawals wrongly posted to his account. His bank fixed the mistake when he brought the errors to their attention. But when he questioned who should be held responsible for the mistake, the financial institution told him that it was up to him to check his monthly statements – in other words, the customer was held responsible for the bank’s mistakes. This is another example where I think fairness would dictate that the customer should be able to have a penalty assessed against the bank and to compensation for the time it has taken him to double check what the bank is supposed to be doing carefully. After all, a customer’s time is also valuable. Banks have a whole lot of different charges for mistakes that clients may make: overdraft charges, NSF penalties on cheques, normal service charges just for posting transactions (even mistaken ones), among others. So why shouldn’t a customer also be able to charge a bank when the bank makes a mistake on the customer’s account. This would be implementing the principle of Reciprocal Penalties – like the railroad company example – and establishing some basic fairness in our everyday lives.

The same principle could be implemented in other areas of daily commerce as well. Have you ever had to challenge incorrect phone charges on your telephone bill; or your cable bill? Or maybe even your tax assessment? I know some people might say these things fall under the heading of “Don’t Sweat the Small Things” – a generally wise philosophy for living in a complex world – but are we in danger of allowing corporations, big computer systems, and big bureaucracies of making a lot of money at the collective expense of all of us, and not being held accountable for their mistakes, as we are for ours? Have we become so used to being treated unfairly that we don’t think it’s important anymore? I think that’s a bigger question that we should think about.

Thanks for reading!

Sibo Zhang, REALTOR®

Your Fraser Valley and Metro Vancouver Market Update

 

For the last few months I’ve been talking about the curious slowing of price increases for detached homes in Metro Vancouver. The benchmark price in September for a detached property was $1,617, 300, which is only 0.1 per cent higher than August. That’s a remarkable decline in the month-over- month rate of increase, recalling that in July the benchmark price rose above $1-million for the first time. Obviously, there was a big spike as the price moved quickly to the mid-range between $1-million and $2-million.

So, a good question now is why has it levelled off in the last couple of months? Is demand declining at this price point? I believe there are a combination of factors that need to be considered. A general price equilibrium, even for a short period, is also a function of supply – in other words, the available housing stock. If there are a relatively higher number of listings for comparable detached properties, price can become a more competitive issue for the seller. Alternatively, on the buyers’ side, a shift to other types of housing appears to be occurring at this price level. Last month, the ratio of sales to active listings was approximately 15 per cent for detached homes, while townhouses and apartments made up the rest. By way of a general observation then, it appears that the detached home benchmark price is going to remain stable as long as there are new detached listings coming onstream and the supply of townhouses and apartments also remains strong. I would therefore advise those clients who are committed to buying a detached home, that now is a time to strike. This market segment is always going to increase in the long term, so take advantage of a period when price escalation has slowed. For the rest of my clients who are looking at townhouses and apartments, here are my suggestions for good opportunities based on the latest figures.

For townhouses, the benchmark price for September in the Greater Vancouver area was $786,600, while in the Lower Mainland it was $661,600. At less than 50 per cent of the price for a detached home, this category of home is very attractive to young families, many on starting salaries and therefore wanting affordable monthly mortgage payments. This month I have selected some municipalities that have good value while staying on the lower side of average price for the Lower Mainland. These include: Coquitlam at $641,400; Burnaby (East) at $636,500; Port Coquitlam at $635,400; Port Moody at $605,400; Pitt Meadows at $572,900; and Maple Ridge at $514,600.

For apartments, the benchmark price for September in Greater Vancouver was $635,800; and in the Lower Mainland $585,300. Again, I have selected some municipalities which have average prices on the lower side of the Lower Mainland benchmark in order to assist a large number of clients who are on limited budgets. I have excluded Whistler and Squamish in this selection, although there are some attractively priced apartments in these areas if you wish to live father out. For others, I suggest looking in Burnaby North with a bench mark price at $576,700; North Vancouver at $553,500; New Westminster at $488,600; Coquitlam at $482,300; Ladner at $422,800; Tsawwassen at $451,600; Port Coquitlam at $414,200; Pitt Meadows at $392,300; and Maple Ridge at $262,400.

Fraser Valley

Here’s some really interesting news! If you’ve been following my contest for predicting the month when the Benchmark Price for a single detached home in the Fraser Valley would exceed $1-million, you probably bet the winner would be announced this month. In July, the benchmark price for a Fraser Valley single detached residence was $966,000. It couldn’t get much closer then, but now in September, it has declined to $974,500. Will we see it break the $1-million mark this year, or will it continue to decline? I have now changed the rules of my contest to include guesses in either direction. If you can predict – within 0.25 per cent – how much the benchmark price for a detached residence in the Fraser Valley will change by the end of this month, I will prepare a customized Comparative Market Analysis (CMA) of your current property. Each CMA is an estimate of the owner’s house value using its condition, (neighbourhood study), real estate market study, and recently sold homes in the same area.

Send your guesses to zhangsibo@hotmail.com by the end of this month. Be sure to include your name and phone number so we can collaborate on your CMA. Winners will be announced in my newsletter and on my website www.liveincentralcity.ca.

Looking at other types of residences in the Valley, we see the opposite trend. Benchmark prices for both townhouses and apartments increased month of month – 1.4 per cent higher for townhouses (now $498,900), and 2.5 per cent higher for apartments (now $358,200). These increases are understandable since the Fraser Valley is still a popular area for young families and singles who are purchasing their first residence. For these home seekers, I have again selected some areas in price ranges about equal distance on each side of the benchmark price.

For townhouses, these areas are: Langley at $465,200; North Surrey at $507,900; and Surrey at $534,000.

For apartments, look in the areas of: North Delta at $333,000; North Surrey at $344,000; Surrey at $350,900; Langley at $368,500; and Cloverdale at $415,400.

Please let me know if you have a specific price range or other features in mind for the home you are seeking. I can also help you determine an affordable mortgage for your income and the equity you can build in your home. I love to crunch numbers and to help my clients in any way I can.

Thanks for reading!

Sibo Zhang, REALTOR®

Sibo’s Market Update for Metro Vancouver / Fraser Valley Sept. 2017

 

Let’s start this month with something curious that appears to be happening in the detached home market in Metro Vancouver. You may recall last month when I reported the Benchmark price for a residential property had surpassed the $1-million mark for the first time in July. I said then that this may have created a psychological attitude from a buyer’s point of view, where many home hunters make the decision to look at another market segment, either townhouses or condominiums. This month I can tell you that’s precisely what is happening. But it remains to be seen if I was completely correct or only half right on the whole equation. While there has been a clear spike in sales of townhouses and condominiums, my prediction was that detached family homes would rise in price at a rate faster than before the $1-million threshold. This latter speculation has not yet happened, although it’s too early to detect a trend. The Benchmark price for a detached property in August was $1,615,100, which is only a 0.2 per cent increase over the preceding month. The increase from June to July was 2.1 per cent so for the time being anyway, the detached home price appears not to be escalating. This might be for various reasons, but for anyone wanting to get into a detached home, they should probably move quickly. It’s a safe bet that the price in the Metro Vancouver is not going to decline. What may be keeping the rate of increase this low is an unexpected increase in the supply. Compared to August a year previous, sales of detached homes were nearly 23 per cent higher this year. It may well be that a segment of sellers also held the $1-million mark as their selling point, so I will stick with my longer-term prediction that the rate of increase will pick up once this segment clears in sales.

Metro Vancouver

Looking at the rather hot Metro Vancouver market in August for attached properties, the Benchmark price for a townhouse was $778,300 and for a condo, $626,800, compared with the previous month at, $763,700 and $616,600 respectively. You can see that prices are moving up quickly in this market segment so I have analyzed for you here some areas you may want to check out. I have selected a Benchmark price range for August from the low $600,000s to the low $700,000s combined with areas with lowest month-over-month rate of increase. I think this may be good guide for a large segment of my clients.

For townhouses, Port Moody was at $608,700 with a last month rate of increase of 1.9 per cent. For New Westminster: $652,700 with a last month rate increase of 0.9 percent. For the top of my selected range I am using two areas close in both geographical location and price: Tsawwassen ($720,100 with a negative last month rate of increase of 0.9 per cent) and Ladner ($733,900 also with a negative last month rate of increase at 0.6 per cent). While a single month does not itself show the rate of increase will remain low in the long term, in these cases I think sit is reasonably good indicator of greater price stability than some other areas.

For condominiums, I have selected a Benchmark price in a range from the low $400,000s to the low $500,000, again combined with lowest last month rate of increase. Port Coquitlam was at $412,200 with a last month rate of increase of 2.8 per cent. Coquitlam was $476,900 with a last month rate of increase of 3.8 per cent. New Westminster: $480,000 with a one-month rate of increase of 2.8 per cent. And Vancouver East at $529,000 with a last month rate of increase of 0.9 per cent. As with townhouses, the single month rate of increase is not a long-term predictor, but I think it’s a reasonably reliable indicator for price stability for at least the short term.

Fraser Valley

I’m betting September will be month that the Fraser Valley Composite Benchmark Price (CBP) for a residential property goes over the $1-million mark, as it did in Metro Vancouver in July this year. If you’ve been following my contest, I have been offering a prize to the person who guesses closest to the CBP over $1-million and the month in which it will occur. The CBP for a residential property in the Fraser Valley for July was $966,000. To reach $1-million would require a 3.6 per cent increase over July, which is a big jump for one month. I think it will take two months and if I’m correct we’ll see that when the September statistics are out next month. So, this may be your last chance to make a guess and win a customized Comparative Market Analysis (CMA) of your current property. Each CMA is an estimate of the owner’s house value using its condition, location (neighbourhood study), real estate market study, and recently sold homes in the same area. Send me your guesses (sibo@sibozhang.com) by the end of this month (September 2017). Our winner(s) will be announced in a coming newsletter and on my website. Be sure to include your name and phone number so we can collaborate on your CMA.

The Valley saw, once again, a high demand for townhouses and apartments in August. The Benchmark Price for a townhouse as $491,900 in August, a one month increase of 1.0 per cent over July. For apartments, the BP was $349,300, a one month increase of 2.4 per cent over July. I have many clients wanting to find a quality attached residence in the Fraser Valley so again this month I have selected some areas with an affordable price range.

For townhouses, a price range that many young families are looking for is from the mid-$300,000s to about $500,000. Along with these Benchmark Prices (BP) I have also included the last month rate of increase so you can get a basic idea of the market activity there. For the least expensive townhouses you would have to go as far out as Mission where the BP in August was $392,500 with a 3.0 per cent last month rate of increase. For Abbotsford: $340,500 with 1.9 per cent last month increase. For Langley: $464,500 with a 0.7 per cent last month rate of increase. For North Delta, $501,000 with a 0.6 per cent last month rate of increase. As you can see, the BP rises as you get closer to Metro Vancouver.

For apartments, I know many young people are looking for a residence that is affordable within a starting salary range, so I’ve selected areas with a range of August Benchmark prices from the $200,000s to the mid-$300,000s. This time the least expensive is in Abbotsford at $259,800 with a 1.4 per cent last month rate of increase. Next in price is Mission at $273,200 with a last month rate of increase of 1.5 per cent. North Delta is $324,100 with a last month rate of increase at negative 0.4 per cent. North Surrey at $333,900 with a last month rate of increase at 3.0 per cent. And Surrey at $345,900 with a last month rate of increase at 0.4 per cent. You may have noticed the difference from townhouse prices here, as the least expensive apartments are not necessarily the farthest from Metro Vancouver.

image via biv.com

Thanks for reading!

Sibo Zhang, REALTOR®