surrey family

Sales move up while new listings drop; composite residential benchmark still below $1-million

There are several market dynamics occurring at this time which reinforce what I have been saying for the last couple of months. If you are watching the housing market with the intention of buying, then I highly recommend you make that decision now. July sales in the Greater Vancouver region showed a sharp rise over June, an increase of more than 23 per cent in one month. I would normally not pay the as much attention to one month’s activity except that July is typically a slower month for real estate sales. Add to this current activity two other metrics to see what’s emerging. First, the number of new listings in July went down almost 5.0 per cent compared with June; and second, the composite benchmark price is just under the psychological threshold of $1-million. Together, these three figures suggest that buyers are realizing prices could begin rising against a declining inventory, and that once the $1-million mark is surpassed again, pent up demand can keep it going upwards. This can also cause potential sellers to delay their listing while hoping to get a higher price, which further move prices up on supply -demand basis.

In actual numbers, there is still a sizable inventory across all housing types so the selection remains very good with a total 14,240 homes available at the end of July. You can find a sample of benchmarks for each property type below with my latest comparisons of month-over-month prices. The composite benchmark price for Metro Vancouver at the end of July was $995,200, a slight decrease of 0.2 per cent from June. As I mentioned last month, this benchmark dropped below $1-million for the first time since 2017, brought down by market cooling measures taken by two levels of government. During this time, a lot of potential buyers have been waiting on the sidelines to make a purchase. As it did in 2017, this benchmark price jumped over $1-million quickly. I will be watching it for you in this newsletter next month. In the meantime, I encourage you to take advantage of the lovely summer weather and check out some of the great listings available to you now.

Detached Homes

The benchmark price for a single-family detached home in Greater Vancouver at the end of July was $1,417,000, a decrease of 0.5 per cent from the preceding month. The extremities of this average were Vancouver West (not West Vancouver) at $2,885,400 and Sunshine Coast at $596,300. (Note I include the Sunshine Coast only as a factor in the average, but do not report on housing prices in this area because it is to far away for my clients). The three municipalities closest to the benchmark on the higher side of the average were: Port Moody at $1,442,000, an increase of 1.0 per cent from the preceding month; Richmond at $1,474,800, a decrease of 0.7 per cent from the preceding month; and Burnaby South at $1,477,300, a decrease of 1.3 per cent from the preceding month. The three municipalities closest to the benchmark on the lower side of the average were: Burnaby North at $1,373,400, a decrease of 1.9 per cent from the preceding month; Vancouver East at $1,352,800, an increase of 0.2 per cent from the preceding month; and Burnaby East at $1,181,900, and increase of 0.1 per cent from the preceding month.

Townhouses

The benchmark price for a townhouse in Greater Vancouver at the end of July was $770,000, a decrease of 0.6 per cent from the preceding month. The extremities of this average were Vancouver West (not West Vancouver) at $1,114,700 and Maple Ridge at $524,100. The three municipalities closest to the benchmark on the higher side of the average were: Richmond at $770,900, a decrease of 1.1 per cent from the preceding month; Vancouver East at $847,400, a decrease of 1.6 per cent from the preceding month; and West Vancouver at $1,114,700, a decrease of 1.0 per cent from the preceding month. (Note I have excluded Whistler in third place here because it is too far away for my clients.) The three municipalities closest to the benchmark on the lower side of the average were: Burnaby South at $760,600, a decrease of 0.3 per cent from the preceding month; New Westminster at $713,900, a decrease of 1.1 per cent from the preceding month; and Port Moody at $656,900, an increase of 0.4 per cent from the preceding month. (Note I have excluded Squamish in third place here because it is too far away for my clients.)

Condominiums

The benchmark price for a condominium in Greater Vancouver at the end of July was $653,200, a decrease of 0.2 per cent from the preceding month. The extremities of the average were West Vancouver at $1,085,700 and Maple Ridge at $347,800. The three municipalities closest to the benchmark on the higher side of the average were: Burnaby South at $653,500, a decrease of 1.9 per cent from the preceding month; Burnaby East at $721,200, a decrease of 2.0 per cent from the preceding month; and Vancouver West (not West Vancouver) at $752,300, an increase of 1.1 per cent from the preceding month. The three municipalities closest to the benchmark on the lower side of the average were: Port Moody at 628,700, an increase of 1.4 per cent from the preceding month; Richmond at $652,500, a decrease of 1.0 per cent from the preceding month; and Burnaby North at $609,500, an increase of 0.3 per cent from the preceding month.

How can I help?

I am here to help you, whatever your housing requirements, I bring experience in banking and finance to assist you in your mortgage planning and can also advise you on pricing your home at the optimal price for the prevailing market conditions. This may include renovations that will increase your home value or simply enhance your own living comfort. I can recommend excellent tradespeople who are reputable, reliable and reasonable in their rates. It gives me pleasure to help my clients. Please don’t hesitate to call me for any real estate advice you may need.

Thanks for reading!

Sibo Zhang, REALTOR®

End of the year, beginning of another

As we approach the end of 2018, I want to first thank my clients and others of you who have been my regular readers throughout the year. In addition to my monthly newsletter on real estate market activity in the Lower Mainland, it has been a pleasure to provide you with two personal blogs each month on a variety of topics normally about life in Surrey, where I live with my wife and two sons, and where I focus on my real estate business. My blog has given me the opportunity to get to research and appreciate the many amenities in Surrey that make our family life most enjoyable here, and also to provide an opportunity for the many people I meet in the course of my work to get to know me a bit better through my opinions and observations that have been expressed in this space. Among the benefits of generating a regular blog is not only for the information that readers can use in some practical way, but also as a way for me to stay involved in the life of my community and hopefully contribute, even If only in small way, to the quality of life we enjoy in our neighborhoods and in our city as a whole. I certainly hope that this will continue in the new year almost upon us.

End of my blog

When I meet anyone among my great circle of friends and acquaintances in the cafes, malls, and streets around our city I hope we will always have time to discuss the many topics that affect our dynamic and growing city. I will be looking forward to that very much because I’m afraid that the growing constraints on my time are not going to allow me to continue writing this twice-monthly missive in the new year. I will miss the opportunity to comment here as I have been doing for the past year; however, I must consider the many things that I need to attend to, and the needs of my growing list of real estate clients will be my communications priority. This means I will be continuing with my newsletter where I will analyze the changing market conditions each month, and offer advice based on market trends and a sound quantitative approach to the real estate conditions across the lower mainland. I know my clients appreciate the kind of information that I am capable of deriving from statistical data. This has been my formal educational training, and by combining it with my business experience in finance, investing and, real estate sales transactions both in residential and commercial properties, I believe this is where I can generate the greatest value for you. At the same time, I do not want to ignore the positive feedback I have received from my blog readers, particularly on civic topics of concern to Surrey residents. So, you can expect to find from time to time a commentary from me in other media as I continue to be an active and proud Surrey resident. This past year, for example, I had a commentary published by Surrey604 – a great website source of news and views about Surrey events – our famous Little League team from Whalley Sports Field that went all the to the World Little League championship in 2018. This made us all proud, and it’s the kind of event that I hope to write about when there’s an opportunity to give deserved kudos to a Surrey organization.

Merry Christmas and Happy New Year

I want to wish everyone a very Merry Christmas and also most prosperous and Happy Year. From my wife Cindy and my two sons Warren and Kingston, we send heartfelt best wishes to everyone we know and appreciate so much.

Thanks for reading!

Sibo Zhang, REALTOR®

BC’s Referendum on Electoral Reform

For some reason I can’t stop thinking about something called the Pareto Principle these days. I guess it has to do with my training in statistics, and the current referendum on BC’s electoral reform. I’m not going to tell anyone here on how I think they should vote, but I do encourage all eligible voters to get their votes in the mail in time. The deadline has been extended from November 30 to December 7 because of postal service disruption. There is of course a good civic responsibility argument to made for voting, but that’s not the primary reason why I hope the referendum will get a high percentage of voter participation.

Let me explain why the Pareto Principle is important.

The 80/20 rule

Often called the 80/20 rule, the Pareto Principle refers to a division frequently-found in many fields. It is not really a rule, as that would suggest it must occur. It’s probably best described as an observation that holds true in an approximate way in many circumstances. For example, the man who discovered it, an 19th Century Italian economist named Vilfredo Pareto, noticed that about 20 per cent of Italy’s population owned close to 80 per cent of the country’s land. A similar comparison was made by the United Nations in the late 20th Century that about 20 per cent of the world’s population controlled about 80 per cent of the world’s wealth. There have been lots of other similar observations. Generalized, these observations say that about 80 per cent of results come from about 20 per cent of the causes. As I mentioned, this is not an absolute rule, but this ratio does turn up in a lot of activities. So, will it be the case in BC’s current referendum on electoral reform?

BC referendum on electoral reform

I am hoping we get a large voter participation our province’s current referendum on our election rules. By this I mean, I hope a lot more than 20 per cent of eligible voters will cast their ballot. If we get only a small portion, say 20 to 30 per cent of eligible voters, and their vote determines the system which the large majority of us will then use, it doesn’t strike me as if the referendum for reform is any better than the election system that is being reformed. The reason we are having this referendum is that a lot of people think our elections typically elect governments which do not reflect the popular vote, that is the total number of votes cast. They point to the current system which is called First Past the Post as the problem. If you happen to be a horse racing fan you will recognize this term. In a race of say 10 horses, the one that passes the finish post first is the winner. That’s pretty simple to understand. In an election which has many electoral ridings, and various political parties represented by different candidates in each riding, it means the winner is the one that has more votes than any other individual candidate. But since there are typically more than two candidates in each riding, it is usually the case that the winner gets elected with less than 50 per cent of the popular vote. When this is extended to all the ridings across the province, then the party that forms the government often has the support of less than 50 per cent of the people who voted. Sometimes the governing party may have as little as 30 per cent or less of the popular vote.

The current Referendum is a vote on whether we should keep the First Past the Post system or if we should also have another way of adding more winners according to a method called Proportional Representation, or Pro-Rep for short. There are three versions of pro-rep a second question on in the Referendum and I am not going to attempt to describe these versions to you. I urge you to read the Referendum questions carefully yourself and make up your own mind. The important thing it that you send in your ballot. Let me explain why.

A spoiled ballot can be better than voter apathy

A big problem with all elections is voter apathy. When only 20 or 30 per cent of the eligible voters cast their vote, we don’t really know what the electorate wants. Regarding the current Referendum, I have heard many people say they don’t understand it and therefore they are not going to vote. For those who may feel the same way, I think it would be better if you mailed in a spoiled ballot rather than not voting at all. If you write on your ballot that you don’t understand it well enough to select from the choices offered, your opinion could still be publicly noted if officials informed the media. But if you don’t vote at all, it just leaves a big question mark about which system you want. A spoiled ballot may not be the best option as a general rule, but it is better than not voting at all because it can provide information on why people didn’t vote. It may not help with the final outcome of the election, but it would help to show that voter apathy was not the problem. It can show that don’t want the Pareto Principle to rule in the Referendum.

Thanks for reading!

Sibo Zhang, REALTOR®

Labour Day and the Start of the School Year

Our Labour Day holiday this year is on the third day of September. For some reason I’m used to our annual Labour Day holiday coming about week later. It’s a bit of a shock to me, because the Labour Day holiday weekend is a family’s signal that summer vacation is over, and school is about to start. Some are returning to the city after a vacation at their summer cabin, while others are navigating the traffic in the city streets chasing about the stores and malls for all things their kids will need to start the school year. It’s a busy weekend for everyone each year, and when it arrives so suddenly after the end of August, I guess I just miss a longer transition week into September. That allows me mentally to prepare for the resumption of another schedule that revolves around our children’s education, a kind a week when we can all take a deep breath and say, “another year has gone by. Wow.” It comes with that mixed emotion of sadness at summer’s end and excitement about the new season coming along. It’s curious how family life ties its real year-end to the school year. But still, I like it starting about a week later than it does this year.

Labour Day itself is a federal holiday set by law as the first Monday in September each year. Obviously, that means it moves to different date each year, but if there’s any politician out there who might be willing to make a change, he or she will have my support. I would rewrite the Labour Day holiday to be observed as: the first Monday in September, except when the first Monday is one of the first six days of the month, in which case the holiday will be observed on the closest weekday to the seventh day of the month. There, not too complicated. I think that should ensure that we get a week at the beginning of each September to transition from the summer vacation to school year mode of activity. And just in case you’re wondering, next year Labour Day falls on September 2nd so it will arrive with even greater abruptness than this year. By 2020, however, it’s back to a reasonable date of September 7th, just where I like to see it.

Of course, Labour Day doesn’t have to be the holiday that ends our summer vacation period. In fact, I wonder how many people can actually name the holiday. I think a lot of folks would just refer to it as the September long weekend before school starts. That might not be very good citizenship because Labour Day is an important tradition not just in Canada but around the world. It recognizes the hard-working people of all countries who for many years in another age were under-represented in their rights and under recognized for their contribution to the economic life of society. But in many countries the annual Labour Day holiday is May 1st, which is known around the world as International Workers Day. This might cause some commotion though, because May Day, as it is also known, has its historical roots as a celebration in some communist countries. It could come across as a revision of the 19th Century revolutionary slogan of the philosopher Karl Marx: “Workers of the World Unite” – updated now to “Worker’s Holiday of the World Align.” I don’t really think there’s much chance of that, and besides, Canada has its current Labour Day holiday aligned with the same holiday weekend in the United States, so that also makes it possible for family members living in the neighbouring countries to get together at the end of the summer. But I’m will bet that a lot of families in the United States would agree with me that when the holiday arrives so early in September, they would also like to delay it for a few more days. Maybe I can get an international movement going to support my cause!

In any event, I want to wish all of you, my friends, clients, and casual readers, a happy start to the real new year for families with school age children. It all changes after the Labour Day long weekend.

Thanks for reading!

Sibo Zhang, REALTOR®

Valentine’s Day and Family Day in Surrey, BC

February is a lovely month – perhaps it’s better to say a month in which we celebrate love – with Valentine’s Day on February 14. By happy timing it follows close behind another day to celebrate a different kind of love: Family Day, a B.C. holiday which this year falls on February 12. Each lovely day has different ways of expressing its own celebration.

Valentine’s Day is Big Business

The celebration of romantic love is big business. Statistics for Valentine’s Day spending in the USA in 2017 show the total economic value to that economy was $18.2-billion. That wasn’t even the all-time record high spending, which occurred in 2016 with $19.7-billion, but the trend appears to be upward. In 2015, it was $18.9-billion and in 2014 it was 17.4-billon. In case you are wondering how that breaks down into different kinds of Valentines expenditures, here are some statistics on the most popular types of gifts. Candy or chocolates account for about 50 per cent of gift choices and $1.7-billion spent by consumers last year. Greeting cards came in around 46 per cent but of course with a lower dollar amount totalling 1.0-billion. Going out for an evening of entertainment was the choice of 37 per cent for romantic celebrations with $3.8-billion spent. Close behind in popularity was the category of flowers with 37 per cent accounting for $2.0-billion; and finally, 19 per cent of romantics spent money of jewelry but with a whopping $4.3-bilion in expenditures.

For Canada, I found Statistics Canada figures that tracked similar categories of spending for all of 2015. Let’s assume these numbers are close to this year’s expenditures, and, keeping in mind that Canada’s population is much smaller than the USA, we’ve still got some serious romantic spending. For jewelry, it was $3.60-billion taking top spot. Next were perfumes and cosmetics at $2.89-billion. Canadian households spent an average of $225 on chocolates. Another source of statistics for Valentines spending in 2016 showed Canadian men spent more on gifts than women, with men averaging over $200.00 and women just over $100.00. One very interesting statistic I found was that just over 10 per cent of Canadians celebrate Valentine’s Day with their families. Which brings me to our other celebration this month, Family Day.

BC’s Family Day: An Economical Celebration

Unlike Valentines Day which has the same date each year, Family Day is set for the second Monday in February so the date changes. And of course, the history of Valentine’s Day goes back thousands of years, some scholars say to the second century AD. BC’s Family Day was established by an Act of the provincial Legislature and came into existence as an annual February holiday in 2013. I think it’s a wonderful holiday because my family is the most important part of my life and it gives us a day, along with other families, to enjoy doing something together. My wife and I can still exchange Valentine’s gifts and this is nice way keep the romance in our relationship, but when we are all together on Family Day, it let’s me know this is the happiest way to live.

One of the really nice things about Family Day is that you don’t have spend a lot of money on a big-ticket item to show your love. In Surrey, where we live, there are some great Family Day events this year that are absolutely free! Check out the Stewart Farm in South Surrey at 13723 Crescent Road where they will have free crafts, games and tours of the farm house. Or visit any of these Recreation Centres for free family friendly games late morning until early or mid-afternoon: Chuck Bailey Recreation Centre; Cloverdale Recreation Centre, Fleetwood Community Centre, Fraser Heights Recreation Centre, Guildford Recreation Centre and South Surrey Recreation Centre. There’s even free swimming at the South Surrey Indoor Pool from 1:30 to 3:00 pm on Family Day.

Whatever you happen to enjoy, living where we are to able to experience the joy of love in both our romantic relationships and with our families is worth a great fortune. I wish you much happiness for this time of year.

Thanks for reading!

Sibo Zhang, REALTOR®