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Your Fraser Valley and Metro Vancouver Market Update

 

For the last few months I’ve been talking about the curious slowing of price increases for detached homes in Metro Vancouver. The benchmark price in September for a detached property was $1,617, 300, which is only 0.1 per cent higher than August. That’s a remarkable decline in the month-over- month rate of increase, recalling that in July the benchmark price rose above $1-million for the first time. Obviously, there was a big spike as the price moved quickly to the mid-range between $1-million and $2-million.

So, a good question now is why has it levelled off in the last couple of months? Is demand declining at this price point? I believe there are a combination of factors that need to be considered. A general price equilibrium, even for a short period, is also a function of supply – in other words, the available housing stock. If there are a relatively higher number of listings for comparable detached properties, price can become a more competitive issue for the seller. Alternatively, on the buyers’ side, a shift to other types of housing appears to be occurring at this price level. Last month, the ratio of sales to active listings was approximately 15 per cent for detached homes, while townhouses and apartments made up the rest. By way of a general observation then, it appears that the detached home benchmark price is going to remain stable as long as there are new detached listings coming onstream and the supply of townhouses and apartments also remains strong. I would therefore advise those clients who are committed to buying a detached home, that now is a time to strike. This market segment is always going to increase in the long term, so take advantage of a period when price escalation has slowed. For the rest of my clients who are looking at townhouses and apartments, here are my suggestions for good opportunities based on the latest figures.

For townhouses, the benchmark price for September in the Greater Vancouver area was $786,600, while in the Lower Mainland it was $661,600. At less than 50 per cent of the price for a detached home, this category of home is very attractive to young families, many on starting salaries and therefore wanting affordable monthly mortgage payments. This month I have selected some municipalities that have good value while staying on the lower side of average price for the Lower Mainland. These include: Coquitlam at $641,400; Burnaby (East) at $636,500; Port Coquitlam at $635,400; Port Moody at $605,400; Pitt Meadows at $572,900; and Maple Ridge at $514,600.

For apartments, the benchmark price for September in Greater Vancouver was $635,800; and in the Lower Mainland $585,300. Again, I have selected some municipalities which have average prices on the lower side of the Lower Mainland benchmark in order to assist a large number of clients who are on limited budgets. I have excluded Whistler and Squamish in this selection, although there are some attractively priced apartments in these areas if you wish to live father out. For others, I suggest looking in Burnaby North with a bench mark price at $576,700; North Vancouver at $553,500; New Westminster at $488,600; Coquitlam at $482,300; Ladner at $422,800; Tsawwassen at $451,600; Port Coquitlam at $414,200; Pitt Meadows at $392,300; and Maple Ridge at $262,400.

Fraser Valley

Here’s some really interesting news! If you’ve been following my contest for predicting the month when the Benchmark Price for a single detached home in the Fraser Valley would exceed $1-million, you probably bet the winner would be announced this month. In July, the benchmark price for a Fraser Valley single detached residence was $966,000. It couldn’t get much closer then, but now in September, it has declined to $974,500. Will we see it break the $1-million mark this year, or will it continue to decline? I have now changed the rules of my contest to include guesses in either direction. If you can predict – within 0.25 per cent – how much the benchmark price for a detached residence in the Fraser Valley will change by the end of this month, I will prepare a customized Comparative Market Analysis (CMA) of your current property. Each CMA is an estimate of the owner’s house value using its condition, (neighbourhood study), real estate market study, and recently sold homes in the same area.

Send your guesses to zhangsibo@hotmail.com by the end of this month. Be sure to include your name and phone number so we can collaborate on your CMA. Winners will be announced in my newsletter and on my website www.liveincentralcity.ca.

Looking at other types of residences in the Valley, we see the opposite trend. Benchmark prices for both townhouses and apartments increased month of month – 1.4 per cent higher for townhouses (now $498,900), and 2.5 per cent higher for apartments (now $358,200). These increases are understandable since the Fraser Valley is still a popular area for young families and singles who are purchasing their first residence. For these home seekers, I have again selected some areas in price ranges about equal distance on each side of the benchmark price.

For townhouses, these areas are: Langley at $465,200; North Surrey at $507,900; and Surrey at $534,000.

For apartments, look in the areas of: North Delta at $333,000; North Surrey at $344,000; Surrey at $350,900; Langley at $368,500; and Cloverdale at $415,400.

Please let me know if you have a specific price range or other features in mind for the home you are seeking. I can also help you determine an affordable mortgage for your income and the equity you can build in your home. I love to crunch numbers and to help my clients in any way I can.

Thanks for reading!

Sibo Zhang, REALTOR®

Sibo’s Market Update for Metro Vancouver / Fraser Valley Sept. 2017

 

Let’s start this month with something curious that appears to be happening in the detached home market in Metro Vancouver. You may recall last month when I reported the Benchmark price for a residential property had surpassed the $1-million mark for the first time in July. I said then that this may have created a psychological attitude from a buyer’s point of view, where many home hunters make the decision to look at another market segment, either townhouses or condominiums. This month I can tell you that’s precisely what is happening. But it remains to be seen if I was completely correct or only half right on the whole equation. While there has been a clear spike in sales of townhouses and condominiums, my prediction was that detached family homes would rise in price at a rate faster than before the $1-million threshold. This latter speculation has not yet happened, although it’s too early to detect a trend. The Benchmark price for a detached property in August was $1,615,100, which is only a 0.2 per cent increase over the preceding month. The increase from June to July was 2.1 per cent so for the time being anyway, the detached home price appears not to be escalating. This might be for various reasons, but for anyone wanting to get into a detached home, they should probably move quickly. It’s a safe bet that the price in the Metro Vancouver is not going to decline. What may be keeping the rate of increase this low is an unexpected increase in the supply. Compared to August a year previous, sales of detached homes were nearly 23 per cent higher this year. It may well be that a segment of sellers also held the $1-million mark as their selling point, so I will stick with my longer-term prediction that the rate of increase will pick up once this segment clears in sales.

Metro Vancouver

Looking at the rather hot Metro Vancouver market in August for attached properties, the Benchmark price for a townhouse was $778,300 and for a condo, $626,800, compared with the previous month at, $763,700 and $616,600 respectively. You can see that prices are moving up quickly in this market segment so I have analyzed for you here some areas you may want to check out. I have selected a Benchmark price range for August from the low $600,000s to the low $700,000s combined with areas with lowest month-over-month rate of increase. I think this may be good guide for a large segment of my clients.

For townhouses, Port Moody was at $608,700 with a last month rate of increase of 1.9 per cent. For New Westminster: $652,700 with a last month rate increase of 0.9 percent. For the top of my selected range I am using two areas close in both geographical location and price: Tsawwassen ($720,100 with a negative last month rate of increase of 0.9 per cent) and Ladner ($733,900 also with a negative last month rate of increase at 0.6 per cent). While a single month does not itself show the rate of increase will remain low in the long term, in these cases I think sit is reasonably good indicator of greater price stability than some other areas.

For condominiums, I have selected a Benchmark price in a range from the low $400,000s to the low $500,000, again combined with lowest last month rate of increase. Port Coquitlam was at $412,200 with a last month rate of increase of 2.8 per cent. Coquitlam was $476,900 with a last month rate of increase of 3.8 per cent. New Westminster: $480,000 with a one-month rate of increase of 2.8 per cent. And Vancouver East at $529,000 with a last month rate of increase of 0.9 per cent. As with townhouses, the single month rate of increase is not a long-term predictor, but I think it’s a reasonably reliable indicator for price stability for at least the short term.

Fraser Valley

I’m betting September will be month that the Fraser Valley Composite Benchmark Price (CBP) for a residential property goes over the $1-million mark, as it did in Metro Vancouver in July this year. If you’ve been following my contest, I have been offering a prize to the person who guesses closest to the CBP over $1-million and the month in which it will occur. The CBP for a residential property in the Fraser Valley for July was $966,000. To reach $1-million would require a 3.6 per cent increase over July, which is a big jump for one month. I think it will take two months and if I’m correct we’ll see that when the September statistics are out next month. So, this may be your last chance to make a guess and win a customized Comparative Market Analysis (CMA) of your current property. Each CMA is an estimate of the owner’s house value using its condition, location (neighbourhood study), real estate market study, and recently sold homes in the same area. Send me your guesses (sibo@sibozhang.com) by the end of this month (September 2017). Our winner(s) will be announced in a coming newsletter and on my website. Be sure to include your name and phone number so we can collaborate on your CMA.

The Valley saw, once again, a high demand for townhouses and apartments in August. The Benchmark Price for a townhouse as $491,900 in August, a one month increase of 1.0 per cent over July. For apartments, the BP was $349,300, a one month increase of 2.4 per cent over July. I have many clients wanting to find a quality attached residence in the Fraser Valley so again this month I have selected some areas with an affordable price range.

For townhouses, a price range that many young families are looking for is from the mid-$300,000s to about $500,000. Along with these Benchmark Prices (BP) I have also included the last month rate of increase so you can get a basic idea of the market activity there. For the least expensive townhouses you would have to go as far out as Mission where the BP in August was $392,500 with a 3.0 per cent last month rate of increase. For Abbotsford: $340,500 with 1.9 per cent last month increase. For Langley: $464,500 with a 0.7 per cent last month rate of increase. For North Delta, $501,000 with a 0.6 per cent last month rate of increase. As you can see, the BP rises as you get closer to Metro Vancouver.

For apartments, I know many young people are looking for a residence that is affordable within a starting salary range, so I’ve selected areas with a range of August Benchmark prices from the $200,000s to the mid-$300,000s. This time the least expensive is in Abbotsford at $259,800 with a 1.4 per cent last month rate of increase. Next in price is Mission at $273,200 with a last month rate of increase of 1.5 per cent. North Delta is $324,100 with a last month rate of increase at negative 0.4 per cent. North Surrey at $333,900 with a last month rate of increase at 3.0 per cent. And Surrey at $345,900 with a last month rate of increase at 0.4 per cent. You may have noticed the difference from townhouse prices here, as the least expensive apartments are not necessarily the farthest from Metro Vancouver.

image via biv.com

Thanks for reading!

Sibo Zhang, REALTOR®