Slight monthly price declines continue, but some prices are levelling. For home market watchers who have been tracking the recent monthly trends in my newsletter, you have no doubt been wondering if the number of listings will continue to increase while sales activities continue to slow across the Lower Mainland. This trend has been prompting more “tire kicking” (pardon my car-shopping metaphor), which is a reliable indicator of pent-up demand, so I feel it’s important to let you know that there are a lot of prospective buyers the same wait and see attitude.
With a large inventory to choose from, and price averages moving slightly downward each month, it can be difficult to make up your mind if now is the best time to make an offer or to wait a bit longer. This may be a comfortable situation for those who are not especially eager to make a purchase at this time, but for others who have a strong desire to settle into a new home, it may not be the best approach.
Trying to guess when prices may reach their lowest point before rebounding upwards is like trying to time the stock market where gamblers win and lose over time. But If it means missing out on a great home for slight fluctuation in average prices, it’s really not worth it for a major investment decision in a home.
However, I recognize that information on trends is still useful as a general guide, so I want to point out that this month the MLS statistics show a decease of 7.7 per cent in the number of new listings in Metro Vancouver since September 2018. In the Fraser Valley for the same period, there was also of decrease in new listings of 5.8 per cent. The combined benchmark price for all property types in Metro Vancouver was $1,062,100 at the end of October, a decrease of 0.8 per cent from September. In the Fraser Valley the combined benchmark was $853,600, also a decrease of 0.8 per cent from September.
This combination of decreasing supply and a minor average price decrease may be something worth considering if you have been contemplating a good time to make a purchase offer.
METRO VANCOUVER
Detached Homes: The benchmark price for a single family detached home in Metro Vancouver at end of October was $1,524,000, a decrease of 1.1 per cent from the preceding month. The extremities of this average were Vancouver West (not West Vancouver) at $3,267,800 and the Sunshine Coast at $597,700. (I am not showing benchmarks for the Sunshine Coast, Squamish and Whistler in my comparative prices below since these three areas are too far out for my clients). The three municipalities closest to the benchmark on the higher side of the average were: North Vancouver at $1,594,700, a decrease of 1.6 per cent from the preceding month; South Burnaby at $1,629,300, a decrease of 2.5 per cent from the preceding month; and Richmond at $1,634,800, a decrease of 1.7 per cent from the preceding month. Closest to the Metro benchmark on the lower side of the average were: Port Moody at $1,489,100, a decrease of 1.0 per cent from the preceding month; North Burnaby at $1,487,200, a decrease of 0.7 per cent from the preceding month; and Vancouver East at $1,480,700, a decrease of 1.5 per cent from the preceding month.
Townhouses: The benchmark price for townhouse in Metro Vancouver at the end of October was $829,200, a decrease of 1.0 per cent from the preceding month. The extremities of this average were Vancouver West (not West Vancouver) at $1,232,500 and Maple Ridge at $363,700. The three municipalities closest to the benchmark on the higher side of the average were: Vancouver East at $833,900, a decrease of 4.6 per cent from the preceding month; Richmond at $851,700, a decrease of 1.2 per cent; and North Vancouver at $1,026,400, a decrease of 0.4 per cent from the preceding month. Closest to the Metro benchmark on the lower side of the average were: South Burnaby at $811,100, a decrease of 1.4 per cent; Ladner at $775,700, a decrease of 1.3 per cent from the preceding month; and North Burnaby at $761,100, a decrease of 1.0 per cent from the preceding month.
Condominiums: The benchmark price for a condominium in Metro Vancouver at the end of October was $683,500, a decrease of 0.5 per cent from the preceding month. The extremities of this average were West Vancouver at $809,600 and Maple Ridge at $363,700. The three municipalities closest to the benchmark on the higher side of the average were: South Burnaby at $701,400, a decrease of 1.2 per cent from the preceding month; East Burnaby $761,400, a decrease of 0.8 per cent from the preceding month; and Vancouver West (not West Vancouver) at $809,600, a decrease of 0.7 per cent from the preceding month. Closest to the benchmark on the lower side of the average were: Richmond at $681,900, a decrease of 1.2 per cent from the preceding month; Port Moody at $659,200, a decrease of 1.1 per cent from the preceding month; and North Burnaby at $631,200, a decrease of 2.1 per cent from the preceding month.
FRASER VALLEY
Sales activity in the Fraser Valley has been strong over the past month, showing an 11.6 per cent increase since September. As usual, more than half the transactions were for townhouses of and condominiums. Of the 1,195 sales, there were 438 single family detached homes sold; 306 townhouses and 292 condos. As mentioned above there was a slight decrease in percentage of new listings over the past month, but the active inventory in the Valley at then end of October was still strong at 7,746 listings. There means there is still a good selection across all property types although new listings still sell rather quickly. The average number of days to sell both townhouses and condos was the same at 31 days, while single family detached homes were on the market for an average of 39 days. The Fraser Valley prices still attract a lot of singles and young families as first-time buyers, and the Valley continues to be a choice region for excellent home investments for the long term. Below is my comparison of current benchmark prices for all property types in the three areas closest to both sides of the Valley benchmark average.
Detached Homes: The benchmark price for a single family detached home in the Fraser Valley at the end of October was $986,700, a decrease of 0.2 per cent from the preceding month. The extremities of this average were: South Surrey/White Rock at $1,396,900 and Mission at $675,900. The three municipalities closest to the benchmark on the higher side of the average were: Cloverdale at $1,004,100, no change from the previous month; Langley at $1,015,800, a decrease of 1.1 per cent from the previous month; and Surrey at $1,034,500, a decrease of 0.1 per cent from the previous month. Closest to the benchmark on the lower side of the average were: North Surrey at $967,200, a decrease of 0.2 per cent from the previous month; North Delta at $921,400, a decrease of 1.0 per cent from the previous month; and Abbotsford at $812,100, a decrease of 0.2 per cent from the previous month.
Townhouses: The benchmark price for a townhouse in the Fraser Valley at the end of October was $538,400, a decrease of 1.4 per cent from the previous month. The extremities of this average were South Surrey/White Rock at $662,700 and Abbotsford at $403,300. The three municipalities closest to the benchmark on the higher side of the average were: North Delta at $569,600, a decrease of 0.4 per cent from the previous month; Cloverdale at $570,600, a decrease of 3.8 per cent; and Surrey at $575,100, a decrease of 1.4 per cent from the previous month. Closest to the benchmark on the lower side of the average were: Langley at $510,600, an increase of 0.3 per cent from the previous month; Mission at $444,900, an increase of 0.2 per cent from the previous month; and Abbotsford at $403,300, a decrease of 1.0 per cent from the previous month.
Condominiums: The benchmark price for a condominium in the Fraser Valley at the end of October was $432,800, a decrease of 1.4 per cent from the previous month. The extremities of this average were South Surrey/ White Rock at $503,900 and Abbotsford at $329,200. The three municipalities closest to the benchmark on the higher side of the average were: Surrey at $444,600, a decrease of 2.5 per cent from the previous month; Cloverdale at $486,500, a decrease of 1.7 per cent from the previous month; and South Surrey/White Rock at $503,900, an increase of 0.2 per cent from the previous month. Closest to the benchmark on the lower side of the average were: North Surrey at $426,200, a decrease of 1.3 per cent; Langley at $423,000, a decrease of 2.0 per cent; and North Delta at $418,400, a decrease of 2.6 per cent from the previous month.
How can I help?
Many clients are still watching the price declines that have been ongoing for the last four months. I hope my monthly tracking is helpful and is of assistance in your home search for whatever property type you may be seeking. However, it is important remember that benchmark averages are only a guide. The actual market situation that you will want to assess when you are at the stage of wanting to make an offer on a home is the comparative prices for similar homes in close proximity to your choice of property. I like to help my clients in this regard with my knowledge of previously sold residential properties in residential neighbourhoods in all areas across the Lower Mainland. Please do not hesitate to call me if you need additional information for your buying or listing decision. I will be happy to meet with you and discuss your needs confidentially. I am happy to help in any way you may need.
Thanks for reading!
Sibo Zhang, REALTOR®